NFL

Ranking the Falcons’ Best and Worst-Case 2023 NFL Season Scenarios

Published

4 months ago

June 2, 2023

darragh

The Atlanta Falcons defied expectations in 2022 as they adopted a run-heavy approach that allowed them to grind out a 7-10 record. They think they may have a franchise quarterback in Desmond Ridder.

With that in mind, we’re diving into what the best and worst-case scenarios are for the Falcons in 2023.

Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Falcons’ 2023 NFL Season

The Falcons were one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL entering the offseason, as they boasted an impressive young core of playmakers, the most cap space in the league, and the eighth overall pick.

Instead of working to land a star quarterback like Lamar Jackson and building around him, the entire franchise stood behind Ridder. The second-year quarterback played in four games in 2022 after being a third-round pick, which was apparently enough for head coach Arthur Smith to become “comfortable” moving forward with him.

Ridder performed decently in his four starts, completing 63.5% of his attempts for only 6.2 yards per attempt, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions. With Atlanta leading the NFL in rushing attempts and boasting the fourth-best yards per carry, Ridder’s job was to take care of the ball and move the chains when asked to. He admitted his “head was spinning” as a rookie but believes the unit will be “explosive” in 2023 with a year under his belt.

Atlanta’s win total at DraftKings Sportsbook is 8.5, and they’re -150 to miss the playoffs. It should help that the Falcons have the second-easiest schedule in the league.

MORE: Atlanta Falcons 2023 Season Preview

There’s reason to believe Ridder will be correct if he’s even an average NFL starter. At best, the Falcons are right in their conviction that Ridder can improve his accuracy and take advantage of his strong arm and tall, athletic playmakers. The duo of tight end Kyle Pitts and wide receiver Drake London is drool-worthy, and Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller are undervalued role players at receiver.

The bar is low to see this passing game improve because Marcus Mariota was an abysmal thrower in the 13 games he started in 2022. Pitts all but disappeared by no fault of his own, and Atlanta had only three games with more than 171 passing yards in games Mariota played. Ridder might be good enough to help Atlanta win more contests by simply continuing the pace he established in his last two starts of the season.

There’s also the addition of Bijan Robinson, who was arguably the best player in the entire 2023 NFL Draft class. Robinson said he already trusts Smith to use him “the right way” as he’s putting him at receiver and running back. It might not be likely, but there’s a chance that if Robinson can stay healthy and if Atlanta continues to run the ball so much, Robinson could challenge Eric Dickerson’s rookie rushing record of 1,808 yards.

Atlanta’s defense has less certainty about what it’ll be. The unit was only able to avoid awful status in 2022 because the offense drained so much clock. They were dead last in the NFL by allowing a whopping 43.5% of drives to finish with a score.

They scurried to add a host of veterans to the unit to help raise their floor. The defensive line will be much tougher with the acquisitions of Calais Campbell, David Onyemata, and Bud Dupree. The secondary added star safety Jessie Bates III, and they’re hoping to find a bargain-bin value out of Jeff Okudah, Mike Hughes, and Tre Flowers.

MORE: Best NFL Offenses | Best NFL Defenses

Bates’ addition will help the secondary justify bringing safety Richie Grant closer to the line of scrimmage without exposing their corners, and getting A.J. Terrell for the whole year will boost the defense even more.

But it’s not a good defense unless the pass rush massively improves. The unit ranked 26th in pass-rush win rate and 29th in run defense. Expect the latter to get significantly better, and the best case for the defense is for someone from their rotation of Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie, and DeAngelo Malone to emerge as a very good sack artist.

Atlanta can challenge for the NFC South crown because it’s such a bad division.

Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Falcons’ 2023 NFL Season

For as weak as the NFC South is, it’s also possible this team’s good fortune as a run-heavy, weird matchup team doesn’t lead to as many wins as last year, even if they improved their talent. They won five of their 12 one-score games in 2022 and were outgained in yards in each of those wins. Smith’s former team, the Tennessee Titans, was able to grind out ugly wins like that consistently while he was there, but the margin is tiny with that recipe.

Those Titans teams also boasted an elite defense and a passing game that could take advantage of the play-action looks their dominant running game created. The focus will continue to be on what Ridder can do with Pitts and London until he proves to be at least a quality game manager or provide the high variance that can offset understandable inconsistency.

If Ridder is only going to dink and dunk passes and fails to bring the best out of Pitts, the Falcons’ offense simply won’t be dynamic enough to threaten defenses.

There’s also the possibility that defenses have more success against the Falcons’ running game. With Robinson in the backfield as opposed to less-threatening players like Tyler Allgeier and Cordarrelle Patterson, defenses may hedge their bets and dare Ridder to beat them over the top. Any dip in the effectiveness of the ground game can make-or-break Ridder.

MORE: Atlanta Falcons 2023 Schedule

Atlanta has the personnel to be a strong run-stopping unit along their front four, but their linebacking corps and EDGE group lack proven help. Both Mykal Walker and Troy Andersen had nice raw tackle totals but weren’t especially impactful last season.

Along with their young pass rushers and cornerbacks, if these individuals can’t take a leap into being decent starters, then it’ll be another long season for the defense.

New defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who replaced Dean Pees, spent six seasons with the Saints. New Orleans’ defense has been one of the best in the NFL since he joined the team in 2017, so if Nielsen is successful in bringing the same effectiveness to Atlanta anytime soon, then the worst-case scenario for the Falcons won’t be bad at all.

At worst, Atlanta’s offense will be good on the ground but, again, unwatchable when they need to throw the ball. If the offense can’t eat the clock for the defense, teams will be able to race up and down the field with ease.

Atlanta could be one of the worst teams in the league if they don’t have some of the same fortunes they benefitted from last year and also further internal growth.

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NFL

What Time Is the NFL Game Tonight? Eagles vs. Buccaneers Channel, Live Stream Options for Monday Night Football in Week 3

Published

8 mins ago

September 25, 2023

darragh

Who’s ready for the second Monday Night Football doubleheader of the 2023 NFL season courtesy of ESPN? The Philadelphia Eagles head south to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the first Monday night matchup.

As many predicted, the Eagles have gotten off to a 2-0 start. However, the Buccaneers have surprised many as they also enter Monday Night Football undefeated. Who will keep their streak alive tonight? Here’s the Monday Night Football start time, TV channel, and live stream options.

What Time Does the First Monday Night Football Game Start?

Is there another Monday Night Football doubleheader this week? For the second week in a row, ESPN airs two NFL games on Monday night, with the first kicking off at 7:15 p.m. ET on ABC and ESPN+.

Joe Buck and Troy Aikman will head to Tampa Bay to handle commentating duties for tonight’s first NFL game. Here’s how to watch the Eagles and Buccaneers matchup.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Start time
7:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ABC, ESPN+
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

While Philadelphia enters Week 3 with an unblemished record, the wins haven’t come as easy as they did in 2022. RB D’Andre Swift exploded for 175 yards and a touchdown on 28 carries after a disappointing season opener.

The Eagles get RB Kenneth Gainwell back but need some support in other areas. QB Jalen Hurts and the Eagles passing offense continue to struggle to start the season.

Hurts hasn’t crossed the 200-yard passing mark yet in 2023. However, the Tampa Bay defense could be a matchup that allows Hurts to open things up. The Buccaneers defense has allowed 4.8 yards after the catch since Week 13 of 2022, tied for the second-worst in the league.

WRs A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith should find plenty of room to run against the Buccaneers’ secondary. Smith has averaged 5.9 yards after the catch in the same span, tied for third-best.

MORE: NFL Standings

Not only is Tampa Bay allowing opposing WRs to find space after the catch, but they are also allowing a lot of touchdown receptions. Since 2022, the Buccaneers have allowed 32 receiving touchdowns, tied for the second-most in the NFL.

Brown has caught 11 during that time, tied for third-most, and Smith hauled in nine, tied for seventh. If there was a game for Philadelphia to put everything together offensively, it’s tonight.

2023 Monday Night Football Schedule

With the Eagles and Buccaneers kicking off the first of two Monday Night Football games tonight, what does the rest of the 2023 Monday Night schedule look like? With no doubleheaders for the foreseeable future, here’s the lineup for the rest of this season.

Week 4, Oct. 2

Seattle Seahawks at the New York Giants

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 5, Oct. 9

Green Bay Packers at the Las Vegas Raiders

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 6, Oct. 16

Dallas Cowboys at the Los Angeles Chargers

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 7, Oct. 23

San Francisco 49ers at the Minnesota Vikings

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 8, Oct. 30

Las Vegas Raiders at the Detroit Lions

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 9, Nov. 6

Los Angeles Chargers at the New York Jets

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 10, Nov. 13

Denver Broncos at the Buffalo Bills

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 11, Nov. 20

Philadelphia Eagles at the Kansas City Chiefs

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 12, Nov. 27

Chicago Bears at the Minnesota Vikings

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 13, Dec. 4

Cincinnati Bengals at the Jacksonville Jaguars

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 14, Dec. 11

Tennessee Titans at the Miami Dolphins

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
Youtube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Green Bay Packers at the New York Giants

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ABC
Live stream options
ESPN+, YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 15, Dec. 18

Kansas City Chiefs at the New England Patriots

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

Week 16, Dec. 25

Baltimore Ravens at the San Francisco 49ers

Start time
8:15 p.m. ET
Channel
ESPN
Live stream options
YouTube TV, Hulu + Live TV

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NFL

Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions

Published

1 hour ago

September 25, 2023

darragh

The Philadelphia Eagles have a pair of one-possession wins, but it is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the better point differential to go along with their 2-0 start. Is there an upset brewing? There are many ways to attack this game, so let’s take a look at some same game parlay picks as a way to maximize our edge!

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds

Spread
Eagles -5
Moneyline
Eagles -218, Buccaneers +180
Total
46

We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with.

Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP. Misfire and he/she is on the hook.

Trivia Question: How many players have more rushing touchdowns than Jalen Hurts since he entered the league in 2020? Bonus points if you can name at least three players on that list!

This is an interesting matchup that pits a dominant run game against a limited defense whose primary strength is stuffing the run. I’m of the belief that the Eagles, with extra time to prepare after playing on Thursday night, scheme up creative ways to attack through the air. Instead of going strength on strength with the Bucs, they trust their MVP candidate to exploit a weakness.

Did you know that WR1s have accounted for 45.8% of receiving yards against Tampa Bay this season? It’s a fact. They are struggling against the opponents’ top target, and that leads us to the question: Who is that player in Philadelphia?

AJ Brown on the Jalen Hurts sideline “incident”: “Sometimes emotions run high.. That doesn’t mean I’m beefing with Jalen. *laughs* And no, it was not about targets. I’m sure everybody thought that because he threw me the ball 3x in a row afterwards. But no, I was not over there… pic.twitter.com/BpaVAX5xBH

— Eagles Nation (@PHLEaglesNation) September 21, 2023

You could argue that it’s DeVonta Smith (touchdown in both games this season, including a game-breaking 63-yarder last week), but I still side with size and label Brown as the WR1.

Brown has more targets this season than Smith. Sportsbooks have Brown projected to hold the edge in both receptions and receiving yards, so I’m not alone here.

MORE: Eagles vs. Buccaneers Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football

On the other side, I’m not 100% sure the Buccaneers want to run the ball. Rachaad White offers more upside as a pass catcher than a between-the-tackles runner, and they have a pair of proven receivers more than capable of moving the ball down the field.

Not only is that their desire, but as a 5-6 point underdog against a top-10 run defense, the odds are good that the game script pushes them toward the passing game.

Mike Evans has lit up fantasy football scoreboards through two weeks, and that’s great. But it does offer us a nice buying spot in a strong matchup for Chris Godwin. The Nittany Lion has caught at least five passes in 17 straight games, and his aDOT is less than half of that of Evans’ since the beginning of last season.

That’s a role to fall in love with against an Eagles secondary that is banged up. Philadelphia is operating a bend-don’t-break defense these days, and while I expect that to lead them to a victory, it plays right into the hands of what Godwin does.

Godwin career when getting 5+ catches

Over 50 receiving yards: 90.9%
Over 60 receiving yards: 72.7%

Godwin career when getting 6+ catches

Over 50 receiving yards: 97.5%
Over 60 receiving yards: 92.5%

Trivia Answer: Six players have more rushing scores than Jalen Hurts since he entered the league in 2020 (Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, and James Conner).

Conservative Same Game Parlay Pick: Eagles moneyline, A.J. Brown over 64.5 receiving yards, Chris Godwin 5+ catches, and Chris Godwin over 49.5 receiving yards

Odds: +425 (at DraftKings)

Aggressive Same Game Parlay Pick: Eagles alt line (-2.5), A.J. Brown over 94.5 receiving yards, and Chris Godwin over 59.5 receiving yards

Odds: +800 (at DraftKings)

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NFL

Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions

Published

2 hours ago

September 25, 2023

darragh

Making same game parlay picks can be tricky for a game like this, but due to the surprise nature of both teams, that opens us up to some favorable betting lines. Are the Los Angeles Rams as competitive as they seem? Is this Cincinnati Bengals team not nearly as good as we thought they were? Let’s take a look at some of the options for Rams vs. Bengals!

Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals Odds

Spread
Bengals -2.5
Moneyline
Bengals -142, Rams +120
Total
43.5

Trivia Question: At his current pace, how old will fantasy football God Puka Nacua be when he breaks Jerry Rice’s all-time receiving yardage record?

Good thing there are two MNF games this week. This one could be a tough watch. That said, even tough watches come with avenues to make a little bit of noise in the betting markets, and this is how I plan on doing just that tonight.

The Rams have not seen more than 10 total points scored in the first quarter in any of their past six games. On the flip side, only one of the Bengals’ past eight regular-season points fit that bill, making that a decent spot to start building in a game with banged-up stars.

The story we are telling, clearly, is one of skepticism. Is Joe Burrow going to play? How impactful will Nacua’s injury be? We, the bettor, have the ability to take a side with conviction in a game like this, where the books are forced to take a conservative route in an effort to account for all possible outcomes.

With the primary health concerns impacting both past games, I’m projecting a run-heavy script that keeps the clock moving.

It took scoring on every possession in the second half, not to mention the Seahawks failing to pick up a non-penalty aided first down for those final 30 minutes, for the Rams to score 30 points in Week 1, the only time either of these teams reached even 25 points in a game this season.

MORE: Live Betting Odds and Newest Promos

These point total unders are great, but it’s 2023, and there will be some offense, even if it’s limited. We know that Nacua is battling an oblique injury, so I’m going with the over-surprising receiver that has flown a bit under the radar through two weeks.

Tutu Atwell has 11 receptions gaining 10+ yards this season (3rd in the NFL) 💪 pic.twitter.com/BrDm9QGEVm

— PFF LA Rams (@PFF_Rams) September 22, 2023

Tutu Atwell has 17 targets thus far to go along with a 14.4-yard aDOT (Nacua: 7.8 yards). That gives him the quantity/quality target profile that we love to back.

The Bengals have allowed a 30-yard catch to the secondary option in the opponent’s passing game in both contests this season (Elijah Moore in Week 1 and Zay Flowers in Week 2), a fact that only solidifies my confidence in Atwell if Nacua suits up.

Trivia Answer: At his current pace, Nacua would break Rice’s receiving yardage record this week in 2033. He would be 32 years old.
Same Game Parlay Pick: Neither team to reach 27 points, Under 10.5 first-quarter points, Tutu Atwell 50+ receiving yards.
Odds: +310 (at DraftKings)