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NFL Betting Futures Line Shopping: Finding Middles

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What if you could take the guesswork out of betting? What if you could place a wager with minimal risk but a high reward? There is one NFL betting market I’ve found ripe for middle opportunities.

NFL Betting: Line Shopping and Middling

For those new to sports betting, or perhaps new to this angle of sports betting, here is a quick primer on “line shopping” and “middling.”

Line Shopping

The concept of line shopping is rather simple. You “shop” sportsbooks the same way you would shop in supermarkets. I live in New York and have accounts with six different sportsbooks. Every time I look to place a wager, I check the line on all six books and place the wager on the book with the best line.

Middling

When the average person places a bet, they are doing so because they believe that outcome is more likely to occur than the odds suggest. Most people don’t think about it that deeply — they are just placing a bet on something they think will happen. But even without realizing it, that is the calculation they are making.

Every season, I post weekly NFL player props using that exact philosophy. I look at the lines, evaluate the prices, and recommend plays I believe are more likely to occur than the lines suggest.

MORE: PFN’s FREE Betting Odds Calculator 

However, not every bet needs to be predicting an outcome. The concept of “middling” is betting both sides of an outcome, hoping the result lands in between the over and the under, allowing you to win both bets.

For example, let’s say Christian McCaffrey’s rushing yardage prop was set at 80.5 on one sportsbook and 100.5 on another. Regardless of what you think McCaffrey will do, you bet over 80.5 and under 100.5. That way, if McCaffrey rushes for anywhere from 81-100 yards, you win both bets. If not, you split, and you only lose the vig. It’s minimal risk for a potentially large payout.

NFL Line Shopping: Finding Middles on QB Passing Yardage Totals

Currently, the top NFL betting markets are futures. Included in NFL futures are season-long player props. Not every book offers lines for every player. Some books don’t offer season-long player props at all. But on the ones that do, the lines are not exactly the same. In fact, there are some pretty large disparities we can take advantage of.

Recently, I did this with quarterback passing yardage totals. For every single quarterback listed, you can find a difference in his yardage total across sportsbooks.

MORE: Where Is Sports Betting Legal? Tracking All 50 States 

Of course, not every line is worth betting on, though. The middle needs to be large enough that you can realistically hit it, and the vig needs to be low enough that you’re not risking too much on a low probability outcome such that you’re creating negative expected value.

With that in mind, here are 10 quarterback yardage props that I believe are worth chasing a middle.

Aaron Rodgers

FanDuel: Over 3875.5, -112
DraftKings: Under 4050.5, -120

Anthony Richardson

DraftKings: Over 2600.5, -110
Caesars: Under 2800.5, -115

Bryce Young

FanDuel: Over 3300.5, -112
DraftKings: Under 3500.5, -115

C.J. Stroud

FanDuel: Over 3200.5, -112
Caesars: Under 3450.5, -115

Dak Prescott

FanDuel: Over 3925.5, -112
DraftKings: Under 4100.5, -130*

I included this because I bet it, but the under was -110 when I placed the wager. It has since moved to -130. The middle is still large enough to reasonably hit, but the -130 price increases the risk to the point where this is likely no longer +EV.

Josh Allen

FanDuel: Over 4200.5, -112
DraftKings: Under 4350.5, -110

Justin Herbert

Caesars: Over 4325.5, -115
DraftKings: Under 4550.5, -110

Kenny Pickett

BetMGM: Over 3125.5, -115
DraftKings: Under 3300.5, -110

Lamar Jackson

BetMGM: Over 3499.5, -115
DraftKings: Under 3625.5, -125

Tua Tagovailoa

Caesars: Over 3800.5, -115
DraftKings: Under 3950.5, -110



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Taylor Swift Is Shown Chugging a Beer on the Jumbotron at Super Bowl 58

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Global superstar Taylor Swift made it to the big game to support her boyfriend, Kansas City Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce. In the second quarter, it was evident that she was having a good time at the Super Bowl after taking a 12-hour flight from Tokyo the night prior.

Taylor Swift Seen Chugging Beer at Super Bowl

Swift’s attendance has been highly anticipated, as many fans questioned whether she would be able to make it to the big game since she had been in Japan until Saturday for her Eras Tour.

Sure enough, she made it to the Super Bowl and was seen making a grand entrance alongside Blake Lively and Ice Spice.

Swift made it back to the States with plenty of time to make it to Allegiant Stadium to support Kelce. After a leg of her Eras Tour, where she performed several nights in Japan, the singer appeared to let loose.

In a box full of friends, Swift was shown chugging a beer with Ashley Avignone. She was shown on the jumbotron and slammed her cup down after she finished her beer.

There was a mix of cheers and boos as Swift was shown on the big screen, and a long pass to Mecole Hardman was the only highlight of the first half for Swift and her friends. The 49ers led the Chiefs, 10-0, late in the second quarter.

On social media, Swift garnered plenty of support from NFL fans.

If you’re hating on her you can kick rocks man she’s the best,” one user posted on X

“The one thing I learned this season is that she is actually fun,” another said. 

“Booing Taylor Swift chugging a beer is so soft. She’s just one of us now and I respect it ,” another posted. 

At the time of the beer chugging, Kelce, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, has had one catch for a single yard. It came on the first possession, which ended up being a three-and-out. The Kansas City Chiefs hadn’t done much otherwise.

They did have a deep pass play to Hardman, which put them in the red zone, but Isiah Pacheco fumbled on the very next play — one that Kelce was surprisingly on the sideline for.

Swift and Kelce have garnered much media attention as their romance has taken off throughout this NFL season.

Swift was able to support her boyfriend at many of his games throughout the final stretch of the season, as her Eras Tour was on a break. But starting on Feb. 7, she went back on the road.

MORE: NFL World Reacts to Unbelievable Super Bowl Trick Play

Despite performing in Tokyo the night before the Super Bowl, she was able to make it in time to support her boyfriend due to the time difference and is having a good time doing so.

As the 2023 NFL season comes to a close, the 2024 NFL Draft is on the horizon. Pro Football Network has you covered with everything from team draft needs to the Top 100 prospects available. Plus, fire up PFN’s Mock Draft Simulator to put yourself in the general manager’s seat and make all the calls!

Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast

Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Fantasy Podcast on our Fantasy YouTube channel.





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What Happened to the 49ers Linebacker?

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The San Francisco 49ers sustained a massive blow during the second quarter of Super Bowl 58, as linebacker Dre Greenlaw left the game on a medical cart.

CBS Sports confirmed that the veteran Greenlaw suffered an Achilles tear, ruling him out for the rest of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

What Happened to Dre Greenlaw?

The outside linebacker, who had already been battling past injuries to his hamstrings and calves, left with what appeared to be a leg injury.

And somehow, his left leg looked like it buckled as he tried to trot onto the field with the Niners’ defense.

Greenlaw clutched his left leg in agony before being helped off the field.

CBS Sports sideline reporter Evan Washburn reported that the outside linebacker left with what was ruled as a lower leg injury. He was later determined to sustain an Achilles injury.

Greenlaw was declared out for the rest of the game.

Greenlaw Carted Off in Passenger Seat

Even more noticeable was where Greenlaw sat on the cart.

He ended up leaving not in the back of the medical vehicle but ended up riding shotgun with his leg injury.

One would think that with an injury like an Achilles ailment, medical officials would try to make the player as comfortable as possible before they leave. It wasn’t the case here.

MORE: San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart

Regardless, Greenlaw was replaced by Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles for the rest of the first half. Greenlaw became the most significant injury of the game.

As the 2023 NFL season comes to a close, the 2024 NFL Draft is on the horizon. Pro Football Network has you covered with everything from team draft needs to the Top 100 prospects available. Plus, fire up PFN’s Mock Draft Simulator to put yourself in the general manager’s seat and make all the calls!

Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast

Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Fantasy Podcast on our Fantasy YouTube channel.





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NFL World Reacts to Epic Super Bowl Intro From CBS

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Super Bowl 58 is here and it’s going to be exciting. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are facing off in the final game of 2023.

CBS is broadcasting the game and the opening was nothing short of amazing. How is the NFL world reacting to the electric Super Bowl-opening video?

Epic CBS Super Bowl Intro Garners Reaction From NFL World

The video, which spanned four minutes and 19 seconds, featured players from both teams talking about the big game and what it means to them. It also featured their families talking about their journeys to this point.

“Amazing intro! Reminds me of my dad! Bravo on the intro!,” one NFL fan said on X (formerly known as Twitter)

Additionally, Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” played in the background, giving it a near-movie feel. “This was incredible.,” another person said on X. “And so, the @49ers and @Chiefs face that final curtain,” CBS Sports said.

The 49ers finished the regular season as the top seed in the NFC with a 12-5 record. After their first-round bye, they defeated both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to earn their trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl. Both of their victories came in comeback fashion, including an NFC Championship-record 17-point comeback.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, had a more uphill battle. Entering the playoffs as the AFC’s third seed, they finished the regular season with an 11-6 record. In the playoffs, they defeated the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens to punch their ticket.

Super Bowl 58 is a re-match of Super Bowl 54 when the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 31-24. The win was the first in Patrick Mahomes career, as he also won Super Bowl MVP. Four years later, the Chiefs have made three more and won another. For the 49ers, this is their first trip back to the big game since.

The game kicked off at 6:30 p.m. ET with the 49ers receiving the opening kick. In addition to being broadcast on CBS, the game is also being streamed on Paramount+.

As the 2023 NFL season comes to a close, the 2024 NFL Draft is on the horizon. Pro Football Network has you covered with everything from team draft needs to the Top 100 prospects available. Plus, fire up PFN’s Mock Draft Simulator to put yourself in the general manager’s seat and make all the calls!

Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast

Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Fantasy Podcast on our Fantasy YouTube channel.





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