NFL

Are the Dallas Cowboys a Top-3 Defense Heading Into 2023?

Published

6 hours ago

May 26, 2023

darragh

The Dallas Cowboys‘ defense has been on a different planet than what many grew accustomed to during the last decade. Over the past two seasons under Dan Quinn’s tutelage, no defense in the NFL has a better EPA per play mark. They’ve been about as consistent as a defense can be over that time. However, Dallas also had one of the league’s least-difficult schedules last season. Can they keep up that level of play in 2023?

An Analytical Look at the Dallas Cowboys’ Defense

Over the past two seasons, no team has produced better EPA per play production. Only the New Orleans Saints have had a better success rate on defense during that time. Dallas’ dropback EPA dwarfs contenders, and only the Saints’ dropback success rate competes.

Cowboys fans treat the run defense like a red-headed stepchild, but it’s been one of the league’s best as well. They rank sixth in success rate over those two years, and their only bugaboo (ranking outside the top 10) is their 12th-ranked rush EPA per play ranking.

In 2022, Dallas finished second in DVOA. According to Football Outsiders, they were third-best against the pass and fifth-best against the run. The previous year, they also finished second, posting the second-best pass defense and 16th-best rushing defense.

The Cowboys’ run defense improved in 2022, and the return of Johnathan Hankins and the addition of Mazi Smith shouldn’t hurt their run defense in 2023.

But it’s Dallas’ pass rush that devastates opposing offenses. In 2022, they posted the highest pressure rate in the NFL. Only the Eagles and Chiefs sacked opposing QBs more often than Dallas. The Cowboys finished fourth in pressure rate the year prior, although they were unable to get home as often as they did in 2022.

MORE: NFC East QB Rankings 2023 — Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott Battle for Divisional Supremacy

And while their defense doesn’t rely on the ability to turn the ball over, Dallas is darned good at that as well. They led the league in takeaways in the last two years, totaling 67.

Quinn possesses a devastating repertoire of defensive line games that he plays on obvious pass-rushing downs to affect an opposing quarterback’s timing and create havoc on the offensive line.

Just about any way one shakes it, the Cowboys’ defense has been dominant over the past two seasons. But can they keep it up?

dallas cowboys — Dec 24, 2022; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (26) makes an interception in fron tof Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Quez Watkins (16) during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Cowboys 2023 Defensive Outlook

The Cowboys’ defense is ultra-talented. When PFN’s own Arif Hasan looked at their unit compared to the rest of the league, he came to the conclusion that Dallas has the second-best defense in the NFL heading into 2023, with the Jets edging them out.

On paper, Dallas’ defense has only improved from last season. Set to lose Anthony Brown in free agency, trading for Stephon Gilmore was perfect. Brown was coming off an Achilles injury, so the move made sense, particularly when we think about the fit in Quinn’s defense.

MORE: Stephon Gilmore Battles Atop the Best CB Rankings in 2023

There’s no end to the Cowboys’ depth, particularly on the edges. Micah Parsons might be the most dominant player in the NFL. Demarcus Lawrence, Sam Williams, Dorance Armstrong, Dante Fowler Jr., and Viliami Fehoko round out an incredible unit.

But there are a few defenses around the league with incredible pass rushers. It’s the middle of the Cowboys’ defense that is their secret weapon.

Cowboys Safeties Are the Team’s Unsung Heroes

We all know and understand that aside from Leighton Vander Esch, the Cowboys’ linebacking corps is very much an unknown entity. But Dallas’ defense doesn’t care, because it really doesn’t need more than a single linebacker for their base defense.

The Cowboys’ safety unit is built differently. Donovan Wilson, Malik Hooker, and Jayron Kearse combined to play 3,032 snaps in 2022 (each played more than 900 snaps). No other NFL team had a unit to each play over 700 snaps.

Kearse plays most of his snaps around the line of scrimmage. He’s practically a second linebacker by deployment, even if his positional designation is safety.

That’s something more NFL teams are likely to replicate moving forward, especially as Tite fronts and gap-and-a-half schemes become the norm. Teams will give a bit against the run to have a better coverage player on the field. And Kearse’s build and athleticism make him a very good weapon to use against tight ends. He also defends the run like a linebacker.

“Getting Dan Quinn back was a huge win, and it was much-needed just to try your best to keep this group together,” Kearse told 105.3 The Fan. “Because the strides we made in Year 1, it can give us a lot of upside going into Year 2, with guys being together.”

Kearse said that after Quinn returned for Year 2. Year 3 likely won’t be much different.

Speaking of defending the run like a linebacker, Wilson is a ticking time bomb. He plays with a ferocity that has often led to his own downfall. Wilson played all 17 games in 2022 but has missed time in each of the previous two seasons with various injuries.

Then, there’s Hooker. While he hasn’t been the can’t-miss free safety that we thought he was coming out of Ohio State, Hooker’s been a solid center fielder for the Cowboys. He’s also been surprisingly physical as a presence against the run as well.

Are the Cowboys a Top-3 Defense Again in 2023?

The Jets, 49ers, Chargers, Eagles (x2), Bills, and Dolphins make up the seven games Dallas plays against the top-10 offenses in 2023. But the NFL is a league of attrition. Injuries will likely tell the story of Dallas’ defensive success. For two years now, they’ve remained relatively healthy on that side of the ball.

We also know that replicating defensive success in the NFL is extremely difficult. Nevertheless, we’ve seen teams like Wink Martindale’s Baltimore Ravens (pre-2022) and Dennis Allen’s Saints defense remain consistent over a half-decade span.

MORE: Can Viliami Fehoko Become the Next Dallas Cowboys Rookie Surprise?

Adding Gilmore helps. DaRon Bland should only get better in the slot, and Jourdan Lewis should be healthy again in 2023. Unless there are a rash of injuries to the Cowboys’ best defensive players, it’s not easy to imagine the unit taking a significant step back this season, which puts a lot of pressure on the offense to step up.

“I don’t think we’re gonna see any corners playing nose tackle,” Quinn said. “But I think for the amount of space plays that we have, a receiver that can be a runner, a runner can be a receiver, a tight end that can be a receiver, a (defensive) end that can play back or a safety that can play nickel. Those perimeter type of people, I think it’s changing that way.”

Quinn has seamlessly moved pieces around on the Cowboys’ defense to put them in a position to find mismatches. It’s part of the reason why Parsons was so successful rushing the passer as a rookie while still learning how to be a professional pass rusher.

With a unit this complete, we shouldn’t be surprised when this time rolls around next year and the Cowboys’ unit has had the best three-year stretch in the NFL.

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NFL

Are the Miami Dolphins a Top-5 Offense Heading Into 2023?

Published

13 mins ago

May 26, 2023

darragh

The Miami Dolphins exploded in head coach Mike McDaniel’s first season with the team, finishing 9-8 with a Wild Card appearance. After their success, Miami was rewarded with the fifth-most difficult strength of schedule for the 2023 NFL season. Despite the challenges that lie ahead, we’re diving into whether McDaniel can help the Dolphins become a top-five offense in 2023.

An Analytical Look at the Miami Dolphins’ Offense

After lacking punch in 2021, Miami quickly revamped its offense by hiring McDaniel and trading for star receiver Tyreek Hill. McDaniel wisely implemented an offensive scheme that prioritized throws over the middle of the field to his two speedy receivers. The blend of Tua Tagovailoa’s accuracy and quick release led to a historical season from Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

MORE: Miami Dolphins 2023 Season Preview

Tagovailoa led the NFL in air yards per completion by 1.3 yards, while maintaining the 10th-best on-target percentage in the league and ranking 16th in bad-throw percentage. He also led the NFL in QB rating and touchdown rate, proving to be a franchise star when healthy. Simply put, with Tagovailoa in the lineup, the Dolphins had an elite passing offense.

Having Hill produce a career season that could propel him into the Hall of Fame certainly helped. Despite missing Tagovailoa for 4+ games, Hill finished second in the NFL in receptions and yards, and had six games with at least 143 yards.

Miami finished with the seventh-best EPA per play, eighth-best EPA per drop back, and 13th-best rush EPA. They had the 11th-most points, sixth-most yards, and 13th-best scoring percentage despite having the fifth-worst starting field position.

Running back Raheem Mostert established himself as a plus starter after dueling with Jeff Wilson Jr. for the job. Mostert tied for 17th in yards before contact per carry and tied for ninth in yards after contact per attempt. He was so good down the stretch of the season that McDaniel admitted, “We didn’t run enough.”

Dolphins 2023 Offensive Outlook

Expectations are justifiably high for the Dolphins’ 2023 offense. PFN’s own Arif Hasan placed the unit fifth in his offensive rankings entering 2023. The key to it all will be Tagovailoa’s health and whether the offensive line is at all improved.

Tagovailoa said he’s “very excited” to show he can stay healthy in 2023 after McDaniel said Tagovailoa spent the offseason learning jiu-jitsu to help him learn how to take hits. While offseason OTAs often bring sensational, optimistic headlines, there’s no question Tagovailoa showed up to practice noticeably more bulked up.

With Hill and Waddle firmly entrenched as franchise pillars, the Dolphins have to show they can reproduce and sustain the high peaks of production they reached in 2022. Tagovailoa was phenomenal for much of his first season with McDaniel, but the team hit a rough patch starting in December. The final month of the year brought four losses as the offense bogged down, and Tagovailoa threw five interceptions.

MORE: Where Does Miami’s Defense Rank in 2023?

Now that defensive coordinators have seen how good defenses have limited Miami’s offense, expect there to be adjustments against the Dolphins in 2023. McDaniel will need to run the ball more as he promised, and the addition of 2023 third-round back Devon Achane can help. The line must also block better for Tagovailoa, and the passer has to avoid back-breaking turnovers.

The peak of Miami’s unit is immense, but raising the floor of their play is also important. McDaniel and Tagovailoa chased big plays to their detriment in 2022, even after San Francisco and the Los Angeles Chargers found ways to limit their effectiveness. McDaniel has to be more flexible in season for the Dolphins to redefine their floor and ceiling.

Are the Dolphins a Top-5 Offense in 2023?

Becoming a top-five offense without a quarterback like Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen is incredibly difficult. Tagovailoa isn’t a rushing threat like they are, and he’s not quite the playmaker either. Tua has the ability to be an elite passer, but there are still moments of inconsistency that can be debilitating to an offense.

Miami’s road to being a top-five offense in 2023 is made more difficult because they face loaded defenses across the AFC East for six games. They also drew games against the Eagles, Cowboys, and the AFC West. But even if they may not be a dominant weekly producer against elite competition, the Dolphins can be a top-five offense in terms of talent and efficiency.

MORE: Miami Dolphins 2023 Schedule

However, because Miami still has to prove themselves more than some of their peers, they’re not quite a top-five offense entering 2023. They’re close, but until players like Tagovailoa and Terron Armstead can stay healthy, and McDaniel can consistently produce an effective running game without a star back, the top five is a little rich for the Dolphins.

Nevertheless, it’s an incredibly fun offense that has the best receiving duo in the NFL and a scheme that fully maximizes Hill and Waddle. Miami can still be a Super Bowl threat even if they’re closer to the eighth-best offense than the fifth as long as they’re better about making timely big plays and the defense helps the offense more than they did in 2022.

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NFL

Are the Philadelphia Eagles a Top-5 Defense Heading Into 2023?

Published

1 hour ago

May 26, 2023

darragh

The Philadelphia Eagles were oh, so close to becoming Super Bowl champions for the second time over the past decade in 2022, and it’s because of the balance of power they possessed between offense and defense. The Eagles had the most efficient and dominating run game in the NFL, with the league’s best passing defense in both EPA and DVOA metrics.

But with so much turnover on the defensive side of the ball, can the Eagles’ defense push to be a top-five unit again in 2023, or are they destined for some defensive regression?

Philadelphia Eagles Defense Sees Several Changes

The changes made are what matters. Monetarily speaking, it was always going to be difficult for Howie Roseman to retain the level of talent he accumulated on the defensive side of the ball a season ago. Philadelphia loaded up, yet they also lost several key pieces from last season.

But that was likely the plan the whole time. Jonathan Gannon was not long for Philadelphia. Whether Eagles’ fans believe he’s a good defensive coach or not is of little consequence because the league adored the defensive coordinator, and he moved on to Arizona to be a head coach.

Sean Desai began his coaching career in Philadelphia, and now he’s back in the city that started it all for him.

“The honest truth is this is an emotional kind of homecoming for me to come back to Philadelphia,” Desai said. “There’s a lot of pride that we take in this city. My wife went to school here (at Temple). I went to school here. I started my coaching career here … down the road, and we helped turn that program around there.”

MORE: Best Cornerbacks in the NFL 2023

Seeing personnel turnover when the coordinator and overall philosophy change is not inherently bad. But let’s take a look at some of the key departures and arrivals amongst the Eagles’ defense.

Eagles Departures
- S C.J. Gardner-Johnson
- DT Javon Hargrave
- LB T.J. Edwards
- LB Kyzir White
- S Marcus Epps
Eagles Additions
- S Terrell Edmunds
- LB Nicholas Morrow
- CB Greedy Williams
- DE Kentavius Street

That certainly doesn’t look like an even trade.

Edmunds undoubtedly improved late in his career with the Steelers and could be a nice stop-gap until someone else is ready to take over for him on the back end. Street is a larger defensive end who can play anywhere from the 3-technique out to the 5, but he obviously doesn’t hold a candle to Hargrave’s ability. Williams, meanwhile, does provide depth on the outside and might be a viable starting option in future seasons.

But losing five starters along the defensive interior between both starting linebackers, safeties, and a Pro-Bowl defensive tackle certainly isn’t easy to make up for. Yet, Desai should make Philadelphia a more schematically-sound unit, and the Georgia Eagles’ defensive front seven is nearly complete at this point.

With the offensive depth chart practically set before the draft, it was easy for the Eagles to go defense with four of their first five selections. It’s also no coincidence that three of the four played at Georgia.

Sean Desai Brings Vic Fangio-Style Defense

Kirby Smart’s defense differs from the Vic Fangio-style defense that will be played in Philly, but there are more than enough characteristics that match between the two to make Bulldogs fit right in.

Jalen Carter may very well be the best player from the 2023 NFL Draft class, and he goes to a situation with a ton of familiar faces. Nolan Smith is an outstanding fit to play the 7- and 9-techniques in Desai’s defense, where he’ll be asked to rush the passer and defend the flat, something his athletic ability allowed him to do at a functional level at Georgia.

MORE: How Do Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, and Sydney Brown Fit Sean Desai’s Defensive Philosophy?

Kelee Ringo is in the perfect situation. He won’t have to play immediately and will get to sponge off Darius Slay and James Bradberry, two outstanding veteran presences. There were some awful inconsistencies in Ringo’s tape, but if the Eagles’ staff can focus on the young man and allow him to grow slowly, he could be a great player in the future.

“We felt like this was a 20-year-old kid who was a good kid, tremendous physical tools, and we really had an opportunity to develop him,” Roseman said after the draft. “He doesn’t have to come in here and be a superhero. He can learn.”

philadelphia eagles — Photo Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

But maybe the 6-foot-2, 210-pound DB never ends up playing cornerback at all. He has the build of a safety, and his best tape came when he was able to play with his belly button to the ball.

Ringo’s also an obviously intelligent defender from a match-based zone coverage perspective, but he needs to remain focused throughout reps. He’s more than physical enough to be an active participant in run fits, which was the team’s only real sore spot in 2022 (23rd in rushing EPA). And just look at the safety depth chart.

But that’s just a theory.

Sydney Brown should also help the Eagles’ run defense as a slot/safety hybrid player. His fit and role are a tad more difficult to nail down because he’s coming from a man-heavy defense at Illinois that had him playing in the box quite a bit, but he’s a talented player who should eventually find his way.

Can the Philadelphia Eagles Be a Top-5 Defense in 2023?

When PFN NFL Analyst Arif Hasan looked at the league’s defenses, he projected Philadelphia to have the eighth-best defense in the NFL heading into 2023.

Yet, the Eagles’ schedule certainly won’t make things easy for them. Including their two games against Dallas, Philadelphia plays seven games against teams Hasan believes are top-10 offensive units heading into 2023.

MORE: 2023 Post-Schedule Release NFL Power Rankings — Eagles Still Elite

If the Eagles want to boast a top-five defense, they’ll have to get some big leaps from Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, and at least one of their safeties. The middle of an NFL defense is becoming more important by the minute, and good safeties play a critical role in running this scheme successfully.

But that pass rush will remain dominant. The Eagles may not scare the sack record again in 2023, but they have a very decent chance of sacking opposing QBs more than anybody this upcoming season. Slay and Bradberry make for an outstanding duo on the outside, and the team should see better run defense with the new pieces they’ve put in place.

Philadephia may fall outside of the top five, but they’ll likely remain one of the best 10 defenses in the NFL. Paired with what could be a top-three offense, that’s more than enough to dominate in the NFC.

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NFL

Top Fantasy Options at WR Include Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, and Amon-Ra St. Brown

Published

2 hours ago

May 26, 2023

darragh

The wide receiver position can be one of the best positions to build your 2023 redraft fantasy football roster around, as not only do they have immense upside, but they can also be some of your most consistent producers every week. With another group of highly talented rookie receivers in the league, plus shakeups thanks to a wild offseason of moves, here are the current 2023 redraft wide receiver rankings.

2023 Redraft Wide Receiver Rankings

The below rankings are intended as a guide for 0.5 PPR formats. They do not take into account individual league rules and setups.

Additionally, you can see the rest of PFN’s dynasty rankings here:
RB | TE | QB | Superflex

MORE: Fantasy Draft Strategy | Fantasy Scoring

fantasy rankings — Photo Credit: OU Pro Day

Who Are the Best WRs To Draft in 2023 Redraft Leagues?

How each manager chooses to build a roster is very much an individual process, but I’m of the mindset that you can’t have enough high-end wide receivers on a redraft fantasy football roster.

If you have an early draft pick, by all means, target Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, or Ja’Marr Chase. They’re the three likeliest players to lead the position in points when it’s all said and done.

MORE: Fantasy Football Apps

That said, keep an eye on Amon-Ra St. Brown, my favorite second-round selection. Although I much preferred his draft capital last year, St. Brown has a legitimate chance to finish as the overall WR1.

He was the WR10 last year while sitting 11th in target share, third in targets/route, and fourth in yards after the catch. Touchdowns were the only hang-up. While he did score six touchdowns last year, more are on the way in 2023.

Over the first half of the season, St. Brown was 32nd in red-zone targets, but over the back half led the entire league. If that carries over, you’re looking for a double-digit touchdown upside for a receiver who has a floor of 100 receptions.

There are also some interesting teammate battles when looking at the 2023 redraft fantasy football WR rankings. As almost tradition at this point, Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are barely separated from each other, but I do prefer Allen when it comes to Chargers receivers, with Quentin Johnston a borderline WR4 assuming all three are healthy.

I would also target Chris Godwin ahead of Mike Evans and Tyler Lockett ahead of DK Metcalf, which might surprise some people. Metcalf is exceptional, but he’s TD-dependent, and after a fall-off in his scores last year, is more likely to be the boom-or-bust player between the two. Lockett, meanwhile, finished with another 1,000-yard season as the WR13 overall and 17th in points per game. He’s also being valued in drafts as approximately the WR32 (80 ADP).

Some of my favorite values also pop up when we get into the WR redraft rankings a little bit. If Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Kadarius Toney‘s ADP holds, I will likely have several shares since he’s currently ranked as my WR22. I will also likely heavily target Jahan Dotson (WR36), Jordan Addison (WR38), Jayden Reed (WR45), and Brandin Cooks (WR39), who, after a bit of a down season (WR49), could be a prime bounce-back candidate with the Cowboys, despite his age (29).

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