The NFL voted to implement a one-year trial run of a rule change that would establish a touchback for all kickoffs fair caught behind the 25-yard line. This NFL kickoff rule change should substantially decrease the number of kickoffs in the NFL that are returned — already a feat that’s dying out.

The new rule still allows returns, and any team behind a few scores late in the game will want to chance it by returning the ball even when the kick goes deep. However, it should mean that the newly evolved strategy of attempting to force returns with balls kicked inside the 5-yard line should no longer be viable.

History of Recent NFL Kickoff Rule Changes

NFL rule changes have significantly altered the kickoff over the years. Prior to a 2010 rule that moved the kickoff line from the 40-yard line to the 35-yard line, over 80% of kickoffs were returned. That number dropped to about 60% and then roughly 50% as kickers entered the league with stronger legs and an incentive to kick the ball out of the back of the end zone.

In 2015, we saw an increase in kickoff returns from 50% to about 55% as the NFL rules committee voted to establish a rule against running starts for kickoff coverage players on kickoffs, which gave returners more room and a bigger reason to take the ball out of the end zone.

The NFL soon decided to give kick returners more of a reason to kneel out the ball, moving the touchback from the 20-yard line to the 25-yard line in 2018. Kickoff-return percentage dropped to around 38% after that touchback rule change.

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With this new rule, which expands touchbacks to any fair catch caught behind the 25-yard line, the NFL expects kick returns to drop to a 31% rate. As a result of this change, they anticipate a 15% drop in concussion rate, following the declines from previous rule changes. According to the league, the NFL saw a 38% drop in concussion rate after legislating against the running start.

Before the touchback change, kickoffs accounted for 12% of all football concussions, despite only being six percent of plays. They accounted for 18% of all injuries of all types.

NFL Coaches Oppose the NFL Kickoff Rule Change

All 32 special teams coaches have opposed the change, according to MMQB’s Albert Breer. Thirty-four players, drawn from all 32 teams, also opposed the change.

The coaching that has already gone into perfecting the forced return will have gone to waste, and the alternative options to making the kickoff return more than just a perfunctory ritual are bleak. As the competition committee themselves pointed out, kicks that cannot be fair caught, like squib kicks, aren’t used in this situation. College squib kicks reduced after implementing their own version of the touchback rule.

In addition to the special teams coordinators uniting to oppose the change, several head coaches, including Bill Belichick and John Harbaugh — who both have special teams coaching experience — registered their disagreement with the changes.

When asked why they didn’t listen to those coaches, competition committee chairman Rich McKay said, “At the end of the day, health and safety drives decisions like this. I’ve sat on the health and safety committee for a number of years now.”

He added, “We used that committee to give us data and inform us on plays involved higher risk of injury, and then take it to the competition committee and try to come up with a proposal that it can deal with those.”

The 31% return rate seems optimistic from the NFL’s side, and there won’t be much incentive for teams to ever return the ball if they aren’t forced to unless they’re desperate in a late-game scenario. The NFL’s modeling tends to be pretty poor, too.

As they themselves pointed out, they didn’t anticipate the adjustment made by kickoff units to kick inside the 5-yard line on kickoffs. As a result, concussion rates slowly crept back upwards to prior levels.

The change might mean that starting field position on kickoffs might be universal across teams. Variance in starting field position has already dropped dramatically over the years, but this could mean that kickoffs all look the same.

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Taking competition out of the game generally isn’t popular among players and coaches. And it should reduce the number of things that separate teams, as well as the low-frequency, high-impact events that fans love to see.

Some of the most exciting moments in football came on kickoff returns, including two touchdowns in the emotional Buffalo Bills comeback and rally against the New England Patriots a week after Damar Hamlin’s life-threatening injury against Cincinnati.

NFL May Consider the XFL Kickoff

The NFL indicated that they may consider implementing the XFL’s kickoff rule, though they would need to get a good volume of kickoff injury data before feeling confident in implementing it. The XFL moves the kickoff coverage players to a spot five yards ahead of the kicker, with the blockers all lined up five yards away from the coverage players. The kicker lines up at the team’s 30-yard line.

Neither the blockers nor coverage defenders can move until the ball is fielded. The XFL touts the improvements made in player safety as a result of the change, and 97% of XFL kickoffs are returned.

Executive Vice President of Communications, Public Affairs, and Policy Jeff Miller indicated that they’re looking at those types of proposals, saying, “[We’re looking at data] certainly from the XFL, some certainly from the USFL, certainly from the European League of American football. If there’s American football being played somewhere in there trying something different, we want to understand it.”

McKay has watched the XFL kickoff and initially expressed skepticism about the play, but says he’s seen the benefits from the perspective of creating the potential for an exciting play. He said, “I do think it’s something we will discuss. And we have a history as a league of, ‘if we’re not quite sure, we’re not ready to do it.’ We can do it in the preseason for a year. There’s plenty ways we’ve done it in the past experiment.”

For now, we’ll likely see a play that’s much more ceremonial than impactful.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts signed a massive extension this offseason. He clearly sits atop the quarterback depth chart in Philadelphia, but there are questions regarding the talent behind him. Let’s take a closer look at Philadelphia’s QB depth chart.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Depth Chart

• Jalen Hurts
• Marcus Mariota
• Ian Book
• Tanner McKee

Last season, Hurts took a massive step forward. While some questioned if he could be “the guy” in Philadelphia, Hurts performed above and beyond anyone’s expectations. He cemented himself as an MVP candidate and led the Eagles to Super Bowl LVII.

Yet, despite Hurts’ impressive performance, questions still remain behind him at quarterback in Philadelphia. Considering that Hurts has missed at least one game in each of his first two seasons as a full-time starter, depth is important.

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Last season, Hurts missed two games down the stretch of the regular season, and the Eagles’ offense struggled. Gardner Minshew tried his best to fill Hurts’ shoes, but the offense was inconsistent and basic. Philadelphia’s lack of a running threat at quarterback behind Hurts hindered their normally powerful offense.

Which is exactly why signing Marcus Mariota in free agency this offseason was a perfect move. Despite an unceremonious ending to his time with the Atlanta Falcons, Mariota is an ideal backup behind Hurts. Mariota has a limited arm, but his rushing ability will allow Eagles offensive coordinator Brian Johnson to run a similar offense if Hurts is unavailable.

Will Marcus Mariota or Ian Book Backup Hurts?

Marcus Mariota is clearly the better option to back up Hurts next season. Mariota offers the ideal combination of experience with rushing ability, which Philadelphia lacked with Minshew as their primary backup QB last season.

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After spending a full season as the third quarterback in Philadelphia, Ian Book will likely have to earn that job this year. The Eagles selected Tanner McKee in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft, who offers plenty of upside as a developmental QB.

Book might have the edge due to his extra season of experience in the NFL. Yet, the Eagles are clearly intrigued by McKee and what he can bring to Philadelphia. McKee isn’t much of a rushing threat at all, but his arm is impressive, and he was held back by a weak supporting cast at Stanford.

Although Mariota has a firm grasp on the QB2 spot in Philadelphia, the battle for that final QB3 spot will be intriguing. Especially with the NFL implementing a new rule that allows a third quarterback to be active on game day without counting toward the active roster limit.