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What Teams Do Will Anderson Jr., Bijan Robinson, and Jalen Carter Fit Most Often in Mock Drafts?

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6 months ago

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With the 2023 NFL Draft less than a month away, mock drafts are everywhere. And at Pro Football Network, our Mock Draft Simulator is always free for everyone. Every selection is tracked, giving us a fun dataset to look at for trends among players and teams. Where does Will Anderson Jr. land most often, and is the fit right? Just because a player is mocked to a team often doesn’t inherently mean it’s a good fit.

NFL Draft Landing Spots

Over the next month, we’ll dive into some players and teams that tend to find one another most often in our mock drafts.

Alabama EDGE Will Anderson Jr.

Arizona Cardinals – 52.6%
Seattle Seahawks – 10.1%

Others listed among the favorites were the Texans (drafting a QB), Broncos (how, exactly?), Dolphins (again, how?), and the Lions (possible). But the Cardinals and Seahawks feel like the two teams vying for Will Anderson Jr.‘s services.

It’s unlikely a team gives Arizona a package to move to No. 3 that they’d take for a non-QB. Their dream would be to pick up assets from the Colts to move back one spot and still draft Anderson while also adding some necessary draft capital to rebuild their shattered roster.

MORE: Will Anderson Jr. First Non-QB Taken in Latest Mock Draft

Anderson would fit like 99% of gloves we’ve seen people put on. Jonathan Gannon would deploy Anderson exactly like he should be, and he’ll be productive immediately because he is already a professional run defender on the edge. Just look at what Gannon was able to do with Haason Reddick. Anderson spoke about a Cardinals’ pairing at the NFL Combine.

“You can see what the coach did at Philadelphia. He had his guys on the edge going,” Anderson told reporters at the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine. “That’s something that I really like — get on the edge and go. So I’m very excited about that.”

The Seahawks are another good fit. They already have outside linebacker types in Uchenna Nwosu and Darrell Taylor, but there’s no such thing as having too many pass rushers. Anderson fits the Seahawks about as well as he does the Cardinals because of his endless versatility.

Texas RB Bijan Robinson

Los Angeles Chargers – 18.2%
Dallas Cowboys – 15.5%
Philadelphia Eagles – 12.4%

Bijan Robinson is one of the most intriguing and talented prospects in this draft class. But simply because he plays running back, he’s also one of the most controversial.

If the free agency market is any indication, It appears the “running backs don’t matter” narrative has finally seeped into the brains of front offices. But while the NFL draft has 32 picks in the first round (31 this year, thanks to Miami), the draft doesn’t have 32 first-round-caliber players. However, it’s largely believed that Robinson is one of those few who are.

So when does the talent overtake the devaluation of the position?

Our Mock Draft Simulator suggests it’s somewhere around the Chargers’ 21st pick. While using a first-round pick on a running back is treated like riding a dog like a small horse (shoutout, E-Trade baby), is it so wrong to have a player you can almost surely count on as being good at a relatively inexpensive rate for five seasons?

It’s not easy to weigh because many will point to recent Super Bowl teams and their runners as proof that using a high draft pick on a running back is the definition of foolishness.

MORE: Texas RB Roschon Johnson Could Be Drafted Relatively High

There’s no doubt that Kellen Moore would know exactly how to use Robinson. He’d be an absolute workhorse for the Chargers. However, that always comes with the risk that he’ll wear down quickly, much like Ezekiel Elliott did for the Cowboys after three seasons. However, the Chargers have other needs that should be addressed first, most specifically adding some speed at wide receiver, and the 21st pick could accomplish that depending on how the board falls.

The wrench in all this is that Chargers RB Austin Ekeler has requested a trade after not coming to terms with the team on a contract extension. Yet, Brandon Staley is steadfast in his desire to retain Ekeler.

“We want him to be a Charger,” Staley told NFL Network. “I think that that’s something that (general manager) Tom (Telesco) has said. It’s something I’ve said. We want this guy to be a Charger. We’re also respectful of his position, and we’re gonna see where it goes.”

Speaking of the Cowboys, the Texas product certainly makes for Dallas in one area; he’ll sell a metric crapload of jerseys, in turn making the Cowboys a lot of money. Pair that with Jerry and Stephen Jones’ constant calls for running the ball as often as possible, and you have your recipe for this selection with the 26th pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Trading for Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks addressed the Cowboys’ two most-pressing needs.

The Philadelphia Eagles are an intriguing option. Kenneth Gainwell is still on the roster, but adding a high-level replacement after losing Miles Sanders in free agency could be a route Howie Roseman goes with two picks in Round 1. Obviously, drafting Robinson happens at 30 and not 10.

Georgia DT Jalen Carter

Detroit Lions – 17.8%
Atlanta Falcons – 17.2%
Las Vegas Raiders – 16.9%
Chicago Bears – 15.4%
Seattle Seahawks -13.2%
Philadelphia Eagles – 12.4%

On behalf of the entire NFL, I vote not to allow Jalen Carter to fall to the Eagles in the draft. A quartet of Jordan David, Fletcher Cox, Milton Williams, and Carter would be tough to digest for opposing offensive lines. Replacing Javon Hargrave with Carter to extend the life of Philadelphia’s dominant defensive line to what feels like the past two decades shan’t be allowed!

The Lions would be a fun fit. Carter would get to pin his ears back a bit playing alongside Aidan Hutchinson, Alim McNeill, and a whole host of other rushers along the defensive line. It would put Carter in an advantageous situation early on where he could win with athleticism as he learns the finer points of the position from a technical perspective because he would get more favorable matchups on the interior.

The storyline in Atlanta could be cool because Carter would effectively take the mantle over from Grady Jarrett eventually. However, the Falcons paid David Onyemata and still have Jarrett, while their EDGE play is a bigger defensive weakness at this point in time.

Chicago’s entire defensive front could still use a facelift, so drafting the best available defensive lineman with the ninth pick isn’t a bad option. Between Anderson, Carter, and Tyree Wilson, one of the three should realistically be there.

Seattle is interesting because they’ve never made a huge effort to add interior pressure as part of the package from a defensive tackle perspective. Guys like Michael Bennett could do it as big edge defenders, but additions like Dre’Mont Jones and Jarran Reed might change the calculus. What Seattle plans on the defensive interior is a mystery.

The Raiders need offensive and defensive line help like nobody’s business. But they must wrestle with the optics of drafting Carter just a few years after Henry Ruggs. If they’re comfortable with the potential backlash and PR hit they’d receive from the pick, then it makes sense.



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Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions

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32 mins ago

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September 24, 2023

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The Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders have both split their first two games, and the spread reflects the expectation that this one comes down to the wire.

When considering same game parlay picks in a spot like this, you’re best off working backward. Decide what you think the outcome looks like and then build the story of how we get there.

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

  • Spread
    Raiders -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Raiders -142, Steelers +120
  • Total
    43

We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire and he/she is on the hook.

Trivia Question: Who has more career touchdowns as a member of the Raiders franchise: Davante Adams or Jerry Rice?

More often than not, I will have the winner of the game worked into my same game parlay picks, but that’s not the case here. The books have this labeled as little more than a coin flip, and I tend to agree, so I’m not going to force it.

What is it that we “know”? Of course, we “know” nothing for sure, but there are some components of these teams that are more projectable than others, and that’s what we need to target.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

On the Steelers side, we saw them play without Diontae Johnson for the first time, and the result was 34.5% of the targets going to George Pickens.

There was no real surprise there, but it was good to see and is something I’m happy to back against a Raiders defense that has allowed opponents to complete 81.7% this season.

If my finished product isn’t juicy enough for you, the Pickens leg is your spot. In seven career games with at least four catches, he’s registered at least 57 receiving yards in six of them and finished north of 80 in the majority of them.

Let’s shift to the pro-Raiders side of this game. Did you know that they’ve scored on their first possession in seven straight games? In five of those instances, they found the end zone, supporting early Raider angles and possible first TD dart throws.

That matches up nicely with the Steelers being outscored by 21 points in the first half of their past seven games (+28 in second halves in those games). I can’t imagine that a short work week helps Pittsburgh come out strong, so I’m using those trends when building my SGP.

Now, we get into the fantasy football portion of the segment. Josh Jacobs. He has no touchdowns and no big plays to speak of through two weeks, not exactly what we were expecting after a career year. But let’s take a deep breath.

MORE: Steelers vs. Raiders Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Jacobs had 19 of 20 RB carries in Week 1 when the Raiders were healthy and competitive, something we expect to be the case this week. He runs behind an offensive line labeled as a top-5, and that has largely been a profitable spot to be against the Steelers.

Since the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh has allowed 5.6 yards per carry to starting RBs (or committees when the starter isn’t clear) who play with a top-5 offensive line by our Dalton Miller’s ranks.

Volume and efficiency are both things I’m comfortable counting on for Jacobs in this spot. For his career, Jacobs has 10 games with at least 15 carries and 5.0 yards per carry. In those games

  • 14 rushing touchdowns
  • 137.5 rushing yards per game

Let’s zoom out a bit and just look at those 15-carry games. He has run for 35 scores in those 42 games and has cleared 70 yards on the ground 29 times.

In the majority of those failures to reach 70 yards, it was in part due to the opponent scoring at least 27 points. The Steelers have an implied total of 20 points in this spot, so I’m not sweating a high-scoring game.

Trivia Answer: Rice leads the way with 18 (Adams has 15)
Same Game Parlay Pick: Raiders 1H (-0.5), Jacobs 70+ rushing yards, Jacobs anytime TD, George Pickens 50+ receiving yards
Odds: +600 (DraftKings)

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Will Jimmy Garoppolo Get The Win in His Home Debut in Las Vegas?

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2 hours ago

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September 24, 2023

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For Sunday Night Football this week, we have the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. The favorite for Steelers vs. Raiders flipped in the middle of the week, as Las Vegas is now a 2.5-point favorite after they opened as 1.5-point underdogs.

Both of these teams have struggled on offense through the first two weeks of the season, as they each rank in the bottom three in yards per game. After a really impressive preseason, Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has struggled so far this season, with his 19.9 QBR being the lowest in the NFL.

Meanwhile, for the Raiders, Josh Jacobs is hoping to get back on track after rushing for negative yards last week.

For the Steelers, this will be their first road game of the season. Yet, it will be the Raiders’ home debut and Jimmy Garoppolo’s first regular-season game playing in front of the Las Vegas crowd.

In a matchup of two 1-1 teams, which will improve to be above .500 through the first three weeks of the season? Our team of betting experts gives out their Steelers vs. Raiders predictions and picks against the spread, point total, player props, and more.

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

Steelers vs. Raiders Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

  • Spread
    Raiders -2.5
  • Moneyline
    Steelers +120, Raiders -142
  • Total
    43
  • Game Time
    8:20 p.m. EST
  • Location
    Allegiant Stadium
  • How To Watch
    NBC, Peacock

Bearman: People can say it was “Steelers football” or “Steelers DNA” or whatever they want for Monday night’s win over the Cleveland Browns, but I saw it as Deshaun Watson handing them the game and Pittsburgh getting bailed out.

MORE: Week 3 NFL Betting Predictions 

The Steelers offense did next to nothing, with a total of 255 yards, 71 of which came on their lone offensive scoring play. Play like that again tonight, and it’ll be all Las Vegas.

The Raiders looked good in their Week 1 win in Denver but then walked into the Buffalo Bills hangover buzzsaw. I like them here.

Pick: Raiders -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Blewis: Pittsburgh needed two defensive touchdowns to beat Cleveland last week. After the Steelers’ starting offense scored a touchdown on every drive in the preseason, the narrative has completely flipped. So far this season, they’re only averaging 247 yards per game.

Josh Jacobs should have a bounce-back game against a Steelers run defense without Cam Heyward, allowing the Raiders to play ball-control football.

I got the under while it was at 43.5, but I would still play it at this number. Keep fading the Steelers offense while you can, especially when they’re due for regression in turnover luck.

Pick: Under 43 (-110 at FanDuel)

Soppe: We saw the Steelers play without Diontae Johnson for the first time on Monday night, and the result was 34.5% of the targets going to George Pickens. No real surprise there, but it was good to see and is something I’m happy to back against a Raiders defense that has allowed opponents to complete 81.7% of their passes this season.

The explosive second-year receiver averages 15.8 yards per catch for his career, and now we get a chance to marry that per catch upside with a strong target expectation against a porous secondary. What am I missing?

Pick: George Pickens over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Katz: I know I want to fade Pat Freiermuth, who is a complete afterthought in the Steelers offense. I couldn’t decide how. So, I decided to split the bet.

This is a single-unit fade on Freiermuth in the form of two bets. So far, Freiermuth has exactly two catches for five yards on the season. His usage has been erratic, playing 50% of the snaps in Week 1 and 75% of the snaps in Week 2 (although a big hit to the chest may be to blame for Week 1).

MORE: NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

In Week 1, Freiermuth saw four targets. In Week 2, despite playing more and running two more routes, he saw just one target.

Simply put, Kenny Pickett’s first read is almost never the Muth. So, my read is to fade him.

Picks: Pat Freiermuth under 32.5 receiving yards (-113 at Caesars) and under 3.5 receptions (-131 at Caesars)

Katz: I am not quite sure why Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yardage line is so high. He’s thrown for 185 and 200 yards in each of his first two games. One was a narrow win. The other was a blowout loss. Regardless of the game script, Garoppolo isn’t airing it out.

Now, his line is set 40 yards higher than his best game so far. It’s a bit confusing. The under just seems so obvious. Perhaps I’m falling into a trap, but I have to recommend it.

Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo under 240.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)

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Target Kirk Cousins, George Pickens, and Mike Williams

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3 hours ago

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September 24, 2023

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We officially have two games of the 2023 NFL season in the books. Now that we have more data and game film to analyze, there are some player prop lines to take advantage of on SuperDraft heading into Week 3 of the NFL season.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Start/Sit Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

Top SuperDraft Player Prop Picks for Week 3 of NFL Action

If you have never heard of SuperDraft, you shouldn’t miss out on this promo opportunity between SuperDraft and PFN. If Justin Jefferson gets one receiving yard in Week 3, you win.

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Kirk Cousins, QB, Minnesota Vikings | 24.5 Passing Completions

The Minnesota Vikings have been one of the pass-heavier teams through the first two weeks of the NFL season.

Kirk Cousins has thrown the ball 44 times in both weeks to start the 2023 NFL season. The Vikings’ defense has another tough matchup against quarterback Justin Herbert and the high-powered Los Angeles Chargers passing offense in Week 3, which could lead to Cousins throwing the ball early and often in a potentially high-scoring affair.

One big reason the Vikings have been forced to throw the ball so much to start the season is the complete absence of a running game in 2023.

The Vikings rank dead last in the league with just 69 yards rushing with a brutal 2.7 yards per carry through the first two games of the year.

In addition to throwing the ball 44 times a game, he has managed to complete a minimum of 31 passes a game in both contests this season.

The line being set at 24.5 feels criminal if this turns into another high-scoring affair for the Vikings.

The Chargers defense gave up 466 yards through the air to quarterback Tua Tagavailoa in the season opener. If the Vikings are forced to air it out again in Week 3, it could be another big week for Cousins.

Pick: Over

George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers | 51.5 Receiving Yards

The Pittsburgh Steelers offense hasn’t looked all that good through the first two weeks of the season, but one bright spot has been second-year wide receiver George Pickens.

 

Pickens managed to do something that Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins failed to accomplish against the Cleveland Browns defense in Week 1… Go for 100 yards receiving and find the end zone.

Pickens saw a career-high 10 targets and produced a career-best 127 receiving yards on four receptions on Monday Night Football.

MORE: Week 3 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

Things should get a bit easier against a Las Vegas Raiders secondary that just got torched by the Buffalo Bills.

With Diontae Johnson likely out for Week 3, expect another busy — and productive — day for Pickens against the Raiders.

Pick: Over

DJ Moore, WR, Chicago Bears | 42.5 Receiving Yards

It is unusual to see a player who just went for 104 receiving yards last week see his weekly yardage prop line total drop below 43 yards.

However, that is the prop life of a Chicago Bears pass catcher to start the 2023 NFL season.

The Bears passing offense has been most underwhelming this year, even with Moore showcasing his big play ability against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2.

While I acknowledge that the Bears’ passing hasn’t looked great, does anyone believe that the Bears won’t be trailing for most of this contest?

The defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs have posted back-to-back subpar offensive outings for their standards. Most expect reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes to find plenty of success against this Bears defense.

MORE: Fantasy Week 3 WR Start/Sit

Do you know what that tells me? The Bears are expected to throw the ball quite a bit in this contest. Moore should see plenty of looks with a favorable game script to help him hit the over on his yardage mark for a second straight week.

Pick: Over

Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers | 61.5 Receiving Yards

Pop quiz.

Who led the Los Angeles Chargers in targets in Week 2?

If you answered Mike Williams, you are correct.

Williams saw 13 targets against the Tennessee Titans and generated eight receptions for 83 yards on those looks.

Unfortunately for fantasy managers, his fellow starting wide receiver — Keenan Allen, caught eight balls for 111 yards and two scores.

The fact that both players were so heavily involved in the passing attack with Austin Ekeler out of the lineup bodes very well for them heading into their matchup against the suspect Minnesota Vikings secondary.

If Ekeler is unable to go for a second consecutive week, I think Williams has himself another quality outing in what could turn into a shootout.

Pick: Over

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