NFL

Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

Published

2 months ago

March 24, 2023

darragh

As we inch toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of Noah Brown.

Noah Brown’s Dynasty Outlook and Value

Not quite a UDFA, Brown was selected by the Cowboys in the last round of the 2017 NFL Draft. For his first five professional seasons, he was nothing more than roster depth. His best season was in 2021, when he caught just 16 of 25 targets for 184 yards.

MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Wide Receiver

Injuries to the Cowboys’ receivers, plus trading away Amari Cooper, elevated Brown into a more prominent role in 2022. He saw a career-high 14.1% target share, catching 43 passes for 555 yards and three touchdowns. But he still averaged just 7.2 fantasy points per game.

Noah Brown’s Fantasy Ranking

Brown is a fine receiver. He belongs on an NFL roster in a WR4/5 role. On the Houston Texans, given their barren WR depth chart, it’s possible he can get as high as WR3. But Brown is quite a ways away from fantasy relevance, even if the Texans’ rookie quarterback ends up being quite good.

We have Brown at WR109 (No. 278) in our dynasty Superflex rankings. That is well outside the number of wide receivers rostered in even deeper dynasty leagues. He should go undrafted in dynasty startup drafts.

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NFL

Finding Landing Spots for Leonard Floyd, Jadeveon Clowney, and Other Pass Rushers

Published

17 mins ago

May 29, 2023

darragh

The opening waves of 2023 NFL free agency felt like they happened a lifetime ago, but there’s still one position group that has starting-caliber players available on the open market: EDGE. It’s rare to see an elite pass rusher in free agency, but veteran contributors — especially those on the wrong side of 30 — often remain on the market even as the calendar approaches June.

Let’s run through the best free agent EDGEs available and identify their best landing spots as teams begin to finalize their rosters before training camp.

Best Fits for the Top Free Agent EDGEs

For whatever reason, the EDGE market didn’t pop this offseason. Charles Omenihu (Chiefs) and Samson Ebukam (Colts) paced the group with $8 million-per-year salaries. The free agents on our list should come in well below that figure.

Leonard Floyd | Los Angeles Chargers

Coaching connections often play a significant role in free agent signings, especially at this late stage of the game. Leonard Floyd already has a relationship with Chargers head coach Brandon Staley, who worked with Floyd in both of their previous stops with the Rams and Bears.

When Floyd signed with the Rams in 2020, he said, “It’s going to be great playing for (Staley) again,” noting Staley’s preparation and communication skills. Networking aside, the Chargers have a need for another pass rusher behind Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack.

MORE: Best EDGEs in the NFL 2023

Bosa has only stayed healthy for a full campaign in two of his five NFL seasons, while Mack played 921 defensive snaps at age 31 (which Los Angeles might want to prevent next season). Chris Rumph hasn’t developed into a reliable third option, while second-round rookie Tuli Tuipulotu might profile as more of a three-technique than a pure edge rusher.

Floyd is an incredibly durable player who hasn’t missed a game since 2017 and regularly sees action on 80-90% of his team’s defensive snaps. He’d be ready to step in if the Chargers suffer an injury, but he’d also be an overqualified reserve if everyone stays healthy.

Jadeveon Clowney | Kansas City Chiefs

Jadeveon Clowney talked his way out of Cleveland this offseason, blaming the Browns coaches for failing to put him in a position to succeed. Clowney’s persona — and the fact that he’s posted three or fewer sacks in three of the last four seasons — might make it difficult for him to find a new NFL home.

But the Chiefs are used to bringing in talented malcontents. Kansas City has a veteran roster in place to handle a personality like Clowney, and they could use another edge rusher even after signing Omenihu and using back-to-back first-round picks on George Karlaftis and Felix Anudike-Uzomah.

Steve Spagnuolo likes to deploy pass-rushing rotations, as no Chiefs defensive end played more than 64% of the club’s snaps in 2022. Omenihu has always been a part-time player, and Anudike-Uzomah will be adjusting to life in the NFL — there’s room for a player like Clowney on Kansas City’s roster.

Justin Houston | Chicago Bears

After adding contributors at seemingly every position on their defense except EDGE, the Bears have made it known that they’re not done bringing in veteran players.

“A lot of times, these guys want to see the landscape,” head coach Matt Eberflus said in March. “Sometimes it’s after the draft. They want to see the landscape of where teams are and what they look like. That’s certainly an option. Again, we’re always trying to add players all the way through, even up to training camp. We’re always going to do that.”

MORE: Best NFL Defenses in 2023

Eberflus was the Colts’ head coach when Indy signed Justin Houston in 2019. Given that the Bears still need defensive end help, Houston could be an option for the Bears, who didn’t use any draft capital on the EDGE and project to start Trevis Gipson and free agent acquisition DeMarcus Walker.

At age 34, Houston might prefer to land with a contender. But Chicago has the most cap space and could probably make a trek to the Windy City worth his while. Houston might not be able to convert 15 pressures into 9.5 sacks again, but he’d be a valuable veteran presence for a young Bears defense.

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Kansas City Chiefs defensive end Frank Clark (55) celebrates a play against the Philadelphia Eagles during Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Frank Clark | Jacksonville Jaguars

Josh Allen ranked third among NFL edge defenders with 1,005 snaps in 2023. Travon Walker finished 16th with 897. If the Jaguars want to practice load management next season, they could stand to sign a veteran pass rusher, especially after losing Arden Key to the division-rival Titans.

Jacksonville can’t rely on former first-round pick K’Lavon Chaisson, who has already had his fifth-year option and could be traded before the season gets underway. The Jaguars used a fifth-round pick on pass rusher Yasir Abdullah in April, but he’s undersized and is unlikely to make an impact in 2023.

With their sights set on more than simply winning the AFC South, Jacksonville could consider someone like Frank Clark, who was released by the Chiefs earlier this year. Clark, viewed as a leader within the Chiefs’ locker room and served as a regular tutor for Karlaftis during his rookie year, could become a mentor for Walker while providing stout run defense as a rotational player.

Yannick Ngakoue | Carolina Panthers

Now that free agent signings like Vonn Bell and Shy Tuttle are joining impact players like Brian Burns and Jaycee Horn in Carolina, the Panthers’ defense has the makings of a potential top-10 unit, especially with Ejiro Evero in place as defensive coordinator.

The most obvious hole remaining on the depth chart is at defensive end opposite Burns, where Carolina is still waiting on former second-round pick Yetur Gross-Matos to deliver.

MORE: Highest-Paid EDGEs in 2023

Yannick Ngakoue has serious issues as a run defender, and he was lucky to generate 19.5 sacks over the past two years, given that he ranked 91st and 60th in pass-rush win rate in those respective seasons, per PFF. But he’s still an NFL-caliber defensive end, and he played under Panthers head coach Frank Reich in Indianapolis.

“He’s got such good get-off. He’s explosive,” Reich said when the Colts traded for Ngakoue in March 2022. “He’s just really smart. He understands the game, he understands what offenses are trying to do. He’s good situationally, and more than that, what I’m coming to appreciate about Yannick more and more is really what a leader this guy is.”

Melvin Ingram | Washington Commanders

Although the Commanders declined Chase Young’s fifth-year option for 2024, they’re clearly hoping he has a standout year in 2023 and forces the team to regret their decision. Hope isn’t a strategy, though, and Washington needs to build more defensive end depth in the event that Young misses more time with injuries.

With Young sidelined last season, the Commanders were forced to give more than 300 snaps each to James Smith-Williams, Efe Obada, and Casey Toohill. Melvin Ingram is 34 years old, but he proved he was still capable of making the occasional splash play with the Dolphins last season. The Browns reportedly targeted Ingram before acquiring fellow pass rusher Za’Darius Smith from the Vikings earlier this month.

Kyle Van Noy | New York Giants

The Giants could use a veteran to compete with Jihad Ward and Oshane Ximines for the team’s EDGE3 role behind Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari. Meanwhile, New York also needs more bodies at linebacker, where Jarrad Davis — who was bouncing on and off practice squads in 2022 — is projected to start next to free agent addition Bobby Okereke.

Why not kill two birds with one stone? Kyle Van Noy spent most of his time rushing the passer for the Chargers in 2022 after Bosa went down, but he also has plenty of reps as an off-ball linebacker with coverage responsibilities. He should come cheap (which is important for the cap-strapped Giants) and is the sort of experienced veteran that Wink Martindale likes as depth on his defense.

Dawuane Smoot | San Francisco 49ers

Let’s finish up with Smoot, who may not have the name value of the other available edge rushers but has been a quietly consistent force for the Jaguars since 2019, posting at least five sacks in all five seasons.

Smoot tore his Achilles in December, which could put his availability for Week 1 in question. But that might not matter for a contending team like the 49ers, who could stash Smoot on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list for at least six weeks before inserting him into their pass-rushing equation.

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NFL

Top Fantasy Options at RB Include Christian McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson, and Saquon Barkley

Published

1 hour ago

May 29, 2023

darragh

The running back position can be one of the best positions to build your 2023 redraft fantasy football roster around, as the continued push for more value at receiver has made many rushers a value on draft day compared to years past. With another group of highly talented rookie rushers in the league, plus shakeups thanks to a wild offseason of moves, here are the current 2023 redraft running back rankings.

2023 Redraft Running Back Rankings

The below rankings are intended as a guide for 0.5 PPR formats. They do not take into account individual league rules and setups.

MORE: Fantasy Draft Strategy | Fantasy Scoring

Who Are the Best RBs To Draft in 2023 Redraft Leagues?

Despite everyone saying running backs don’t matter, they, in fact, do matter quite a bit for fantasy. While they are just one component of a roster, nailing the running back selections for your team will place you in a much better position than those who fade the position and roll the dice with mid-RB3s who might have some upside but lack a consistent floor or ceiling.

You likely don’t need to tell you that drafting Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, or even Bijan Robinson is a good idea. But I would say to be aggressive with Detroit Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs.

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He landed in an ideal spot and fills the role left by D’Andre Swift, and while Swift did disappoint overall, he was third in points per opportunity with a 70-target season despite Jamaal Williams breaking Barry Sanders’ rushing TD record with 17.

David Montgomery isn’t going to do that. Gibbs is not just a better prospect than Swift but is the best receiving back we have seen since the 2017 class and has a top-six upside if things break right.

At 214 pounds with sub-4.5 speed and receiving versatility, Buccaneers RB Rachaad White has lead-back upside, and we saw this start last season.

In Weeks 10-17, White averaged 15 touches and over 70 yards per game, which would be a 17-game pace of over 1,200 yards on 275 touches, with over 70 coming in the passing game while playing on 49% of the snaps. If he even sniffs that volume level, White could close in on high-end RB2 status in 2023.

Bank on a bounceback from Najee Harris in 2023 as well. Between Weeks 1-8, Harris was the RB23 and 29th in points per game at 10.9 (PPR). But we also have to remember that Harris was dealing with a Lisfranc injury he sustained during training camp.

Yet, Harris finished the season much stronger, and it seemed to go a bit under the radar. From Weeks 10-17, Harris was the RB8 overall and ninth in points per game with 15.3 (PPR). He was tied for second in rushing attempts (141) and averaged 20.6 opportunities.

Add in Week 18, and Harris averaged 20 opportunities, 87.8 rushing yards, and 0.8 touchdowns per game. He also sat 14th in routes run while recording 20+ carries in five of his last eight games.

As for mid-round value or later picks to target in fantasy football RB rankings, keep an eye on James Conner, Alexander Mattison, Zach Charbonnet, Devon Achane, Roschon Johnson, Jaylen Warren, Samaje Perine, Tank Bigsby, and Pierre Strong Jr.

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NFL

Analyzing the Browns’ Best and Worst-Case 2023 Season Scenarios

Published

2 hours ago

May 29, 2023

darragh

The Cleveland Browns have an extraordinary ceiling, given who they have at quarterback and how they’ve constructed their roster. They are, however, third in the odds to win the AFC North, just barely ahead of the Pittsburgh Steelers, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. The Browns’ NFL predictions for 2023 don’t look optimistic.

But Cleveland does have several outcomes ahead of them that could change the tenor of their season and head coach Kevin Stefanski, who may not get a third QB to work with if Deshaun Watson doesn’t work out.

If all goes according to plan, the Browns could have an elite offense and elite defense. They have the pieces in place on both sides of the ball to make a deep run and shock the AFC. Now that the Browns have overcome the hurdle of winning a playoff game in their recent history, they need to do more to build on it. And they can.

Predicting the Best-Case Scenario for the Cleveland Browns’ 2023 NFL Season

The Browns need many things to go right for them in the division, not just on their team, in order to see the ideal scenario evolve for them in a competitive AFC. Cleveland would benefit from a limited development curve for Kenny Pickett in Pittsburgh but will probably need more help from Baltimore and Cincinnati in order to win the division and set up favorable seeding in the playoffs.

On Cincinnati’s side, seeing the losses at safety and cornerback could mean a drop-off in their passing defense, while the Bengals could see pressure get to Joe Burrow despite investments along the offensive line. For the Ravens, another inconsistent Lamar Jackson season, driven by slow development at receiver, would help — especially because Baltimore’s defense doesn’t look to be what it once was.

But in order for those things to matter at all, the Browns need to be a better team. The primary issue is at quarterback, where they could see Watson return to his MVP-level play. In Houston, before his battle with the team and subsequent sexual misconduct allegations from over two dozen women, Watson was electric.

Last year, he looked rusty last year, and bridge quarterback Jacoby Brissett outperformed him on the field. But if he’s shaken off that rust, Watson could be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.

MORE: Cleveland Browns Season Preview 2023

There’s explosive potential with Cleveland’s offense. Amari Cooper can turn in big plays consistently, and both Marquise Goodwin and Donovan Peoples-Jones have the athleticism to be a deep threat.

What will really make an offense like that effective, however, would be a high floor with consistent players. Elijah Moore can provide that from the slot, and rookie Cedric Tillman has the size and speed to be explosive with the capability to win underneath. David Bell, a third-round pick from last year, could also be a possession option.

If half of Cleveland’s receiving corps takes a step forward in their development, they could have an extremely well-rounded cast. Add in Nick Chubb, perhaps the best pure runner in the NFL, and the Browns could attack opposing defenses in a variety of ways.

Their offensive line underperformed last year, but there were moments when this core group was one of the best in the NFL. If they reached the heights that they had before, they could make for one of the most potent NFL offenses.

On defense, the Browns have upgraded their pass rush, pairing Myles Garrett with Za’Darius Smith. Smith was efficient last year, and he could do it again, giving Cleveland a great foundation to build their defense around. They’ve shored up the middle with Dalvin Tomlinson in free agency and Siaki Ika in the draft, which could turn that DT group from a weakness into a strength.

nfl predictions — Jan 8, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett (8) releases the ball as he is hit by Cleveland Browns dfensive end Myles Garrett (95) during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports

And though returning Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah back from injury will be big, the most important thing will be making sure that their young secondary can be consistent. Martin Emerson turned in a surprising and underrated performance as a rookie corner last year, and the Browns have seen some excellent years from Denzel Ward, who didn’t live up to that last year but could under new defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz.

At nickel, Greg Newsome, who’s been promising but hasn’t improved substantially since entering the league, could round out the defense. On top of that, a leap forward in development from Grant Delpit could mean an elite defense.

MORE: Where Does the Browns’ Defense Rank in 2023 Rankings?

In any instance, the pass rush should make the coverage look better. That should mean, in the best-case scenario, a top-eight NFL defense and a top-five NFL offense for Cleveland.

Predicting the Worst-Case Scenario for the Browns’ 2023 Season

In the worst-case scenario, the Browns will see the division return to its heyday and compete to fill all the Wild Card spots in the playoffs. The Bengals and Ravens both have quarterbacks with MVP-quality seasons and, more recently than Watson, too.

The investments that Cincinnati has made on the offensive line and the Ravens have made at receiver have a good chance of working out. If Baltimore generates a multidimensional offense, they’ll have more threats available to them than Cleveland will, regardless of Watson’s return to form. The Bengals may not have as many ways to attack offenses, but if they stay on track, they have more explosive potential.

All that could occur while Pittsburgh quietly improves in the background. It’s difficult to bet against Mike Tomlin, and improvement for Pickett and WR George Pickens could make the offense threatening. A pass rush with T.J. Watt will also always be difficult to discount. If the Steelers get more out of their secondary than just what Minkah Fitzpatrick can provide, they’ll also be tough to score on.

But the worst-case scenario for the Browns would mean that their own roster fails to meet their standards. Watson hasn’t played well in the NFL since 2020, and his 2022 play was alarmingly bad — ranking 31st in adjusted net yards per attempt, right behind the quarterback he replaced: Baker Mayfield.

It’s entirely possible that Cleveland’s receiving corps might be carried solely by Cooper. There are no promises guaranteed for rookies, especially third-round rookies. Moore, Peoples-Jones, and Bell have all been inconsistent enough that it’s tough to rely on them to consistently produce.

MORE: 2023 NFL Schedule

It also could be the case that Smith, who is 30 years old, fails to capture his performance from last year while injuries and age catch up to him. If the Browns don’t have the development they need from their young secondary, they could see themselves gashed time and again while Garrett’s effective pass rush gets wasted on every third down.

In the end, outcomes will be driven by Watson himself. Should he perform like he did last year, the Browns will get to pick pretty high in the draft, which should be pretty valuable for their next head coach.

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