NFL
Fantasy Outlook, Value, Projections, and Rankings

As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of WR George Pickens.
George Pickens’ Dynasty Outlook and Value
The flash was there, even though the consistency wasn’t. From the minute the draft selection was made, I called Pickens the WR1 of the Pittsburgh Steelers. I cautioned managers not to let him slide in drafts, calling back to what happened to Tee Higgins in 2020.
Pickens showed exactly what I was hoping to see out of him: explosion, incredible body control, three-level separation skills, and buttery soft hands. Despite seeing 84 targets, Pickens finished ahead of Johnson as the WR43 in PPR formats with 52 receptions, 801 yards, and five total touchdowns on a healthy 14.5 aDOT with a 15.6% target share and 28.52% air-yard share.
The Pickens-Pickett combination will only get better as the two get more reps and grow together in the offense. Pickens showed positional versatility, lining up as the X or in the slot. And while he could still use some refinement in his game, you’re looking at one of the up-and-coming household names at the deepest position in dynasty.
MORE: Dynasty Rankings 2023 — Top Fantasy Options at Wide Receiver
Part of the evaluation of Pickens comes down to your belief in the ceiling of Pickett and this offense. If you believe we likely saw all that Pickett has to offer, then odds are Pickens likely doesn’t interest you much, as he’ll spend the next three years in a mid-tier offense, and we won’t see his upside.
But if you believe that Pickett does have way more to show and will take another step forward in 2023, then now might be the time to give Pickens a second look before the value rises.
George Pickens’ Dynasty Fantasy Ranking
I don’t want to rely on Pickens as my No. 1 or No. 2 going into the season, but I have him ranked as a low-end WR2 in dynasty due to his trajectory. Currently, Pickens is the WR24 in PPR formats, and in Superflex, where QBs see an increase in value due to positional scarcity, he is the No. 64 player.
There is room for him to creep into the high-end WR2 territory if his path and development go as hoped because the talent is certainly there. I am in the camp that we should not evaluate QBs too harshly in Year 1, and the same goes for receivers. Don’t set the value based on who someone is now but who they can be down the road. That version of Pickens is going to be fun to watch.
There’s still decent value to be had in drafting Pickens — more than if you were trying to trade for him, which would cost something in the late-first-round 2023 range. The managers who have held on to him are likely doing so because they are also optimistic about his future and don’t want to miss out on the surge of value. Think DeVonta Smith and Amon-Ra St. Brown, for example.
When I’m trying to balance youth and upside, Pickens is exactly the type of player I would look to have on my dynasty roster heading into the 2023 offseason. He is someone that, if I did not snag in rookie drafts last year, I would be actively trying to trade for him this offseason.
NFL
‘My Health Is Way More Important’

If practicing for the first time since Nov. 8 wasn’t enough of a positive sign that Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins will play Monday night at Jacksonville, his willingness to do a media session for the first time since injuring his hamstring hammered home the point.
Higgins said he feels as though he’s 100 percent healthy despite the team bringing him along slowly and limiting his participation, and he’s looking forward to being back in action against the Jaguars.
Will Tee Higgins Play Monday at Jacksonville?
“That’s the plan for sure,” Higgins said.
Higgins has missed the last three games, all losses, due to the hamstring injury, and he also missed the Week 5 win at Arizona due to a fractured rib.
“Obviously, it’s frustrating with the injuries and stuff, but any time I can be out with the guys and help the team get a ‘W,’ that’s all I ask for,” Higgins said.
Asked about some of the outside criticism that he wasn’t playing due to the lack of getting a contract extension for the start of the season and his pending foray into free agency for the first time, Higgins said he was unaware of it but isn’t surprised by it.
#Bengals head coach Zac Taylor said any suggestions that Tee Higgins is making a business decision are ill informed: pic.twitter.com/sFTbelgthF
— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) November 24, 2023
“I haven’t heard that, haven’t seen it,” he said. “I’m pretty sure people have been talking like that, but it’s cool. My health is way more important than the other people who have their opinion on me.”
MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart
“But I’m here, and my only thing is I always want to help this team,” he continued. “I’m glad I’m here, and I’m glad I’m healthy.”
Bengals quarterback Jake Browning is glad Higgins is back as well.
“Tee’s one of the top receivers in the NFL,” he said. “I don’t think I can really put into words how important he is to this offense. I think we’ve got a really good receiver room, and I don’t want to take away from (it). I think Andrei (Iosivas) has continued to play really well. Trenton Irwin has proven he can do it. But there’s just something that Tee brings to the table being as big, as fast, and having the experience he does, where it’s always nice to have him and Ja’Marr (Chase) on the outside.”
Higgins’ hamstring injury occurred while running a go route in practice the Wednesday before the Houston game. When it first happened, he didn’t think it was going to cost him any games.
“It was a deep ball, and I over-strided,” Higgins said. “Things like that happen. I thought it was just gonna be a little strain or something like that. But I obviously went in and got the pictures, and it was a little worse than we thought.”
Even in the best-case scenario that Higgins plays in all six remaining games, he will still have missed nearly a quarter of it with four out of 17 games. But he said that doesn’t mean he can’t accomplish his goals.
“I’ve still got my goals written down, and I’ve still got goals to cross off for this season,” he said. “Some of them I might not be able to hit, but at the same time, I might. You never know. My goal is to go out and accomplish those goals no matter what.”
#Bengals WR Tee Higgins talks about his hamstring injury and “the plan” for Monday night. pic.twitter.com/g7KSu7nlPb
— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) November 30, 2023
Asked if he could share a couple of those goals, Higgins declined.
But the key one for any receiver is a 1,000-yard season, yet the missed time and the slow start to the season may have that out of reach. Higgins has 27 catches for 328 yards. He would need to average 110.3 yards over the final six games to get there.
The most important part of the equation at this point is that Higgins plans to return to action.
And whatever personal goals he has set to help him land a life-changing contract in the offseason are currently behind his main goal of helping the Bengals snap their three-game losing streak and keep hope alive for a playoff berth.
“Obviously, we definitely want to win, definitely need to win,” he said. “I feel like this could definitely get us back on track to where we want to go. We know we’ve still got the guys in this locker room to go out and win games. All it takes is for us to put together the pieces of the puzzle and complement each other and just play ball.”
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast
Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Bengals Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Bengals Podcast on our NFL YouTube channel.
NFL
Should You Start Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, or Romeo Doubs in Fantasy Football in Week 13?

We’re diving into the outlooks for Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs in fantasy football for Week 13. Who is the better Green Bay Packers wide receiver to start this week?
Should You Start Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, or Romeo Doubs This Week?
The Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer says Reed is the player to start. His projected 8.7 points include 3.9 receptions, 53.9 yards, and 0.2 TDs. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the PFN Consensus Projection for Watson (8.2 points), Doubs (7.8 points), and Wicks (4.8 points).
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Watson outperforming all of Reed, Doubs, and Wicks. Watson balled out on Thanksgiving and has a unique skill set. The matchup is tough all around for them. Watson’s size and elite speed, along with being the alpha, make him the top choice for me.
Fantasy Outlook for Watson This Week
This season has been a disappointment for Watson and his managers, but Thanksgiving offered a glimmer of hope. Watson finished with his highest point total of the season, with 17.9 half-PPR points. That was good enough to make him the WR10 on the week. Most of that damage was done in the first half, too.
MORE: Fantasy News Tracker
All year, Watson has been good by most metrics; he and Jordan Love just seemed to miss on his deep routes. All three primary receivers (Watson, Doubs, Reed) are targeted at similar rates, even with regard to first reads. The biggest difference? Watson’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 5-6 yards deeper than his teammates.
This means that Watson is the best bet for more yardage over any of his teammates. The Chiefs CBs are a tough matchup, though. Reed is the other top option and gets Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs top cover CB, in the slot. Watson and Doubs see L’Jarius Sneed or Jaylen Watson. Watson is the easiest one to pass against.
Fantasy Outlook for Wicks This Week
Wicks is the Packers’ fourth receiver on the depth chart. He had been trending up, but after missing last week with the concussion, and with Watson blowing up, Wicks is just a possible stash.
Wicks has been an efficient WR when seeing opportunities this season. Just don’t expect him to see a ton of them. When Watson has been healthy, Wicks has not played more than 44% of snaps in any game. He’s seen at least four targets in each of his last four games played, but that’s a tough bet to gamble on.
Fantasy Outlook for Reed This Week
Reed has been probably the Packers’ best, most consistent fantasy WR this season. Reed has been a top-36 fantasy WR in seven of his 11 games. While all of that is true, and he’s the safest bet most weeks, this isn’t most weeks.
MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet
It’s hard to throw on the Chiefs in the slot. McDuffie is the primary slot CB for the Chiefs, and he’s been elite this season. On the year, McDuffie has allowed just a single TD when in coverage. Teams look to avoid him most weeks — he’s seen four or fewer targets against in six of his 11 games on the year.
Reed has recently been involved in running the ball as well as receiving it. This likely keeps him viable for fantasy in Week 13, but his ceiling is still limited. He would be my favorite non-Watson option, but he, like all the Packers WRs, is risky this week.
Fantasy Outlook for Doubs This Week
Doubs has been a touchdown-dependent player for fantasy. Since Watson came back from injury, any of his relevant weeks came when he’s found the end zone. All of his top-15 finishes came without Watson playing, and he’s recorded a top-40 finish just four times with Watson in the seven games they’ve played together.
Doubs also hasn’t drawn targets with Watson and Reed there. Since Week 5, he’s seen over six targets just once. In that same span, he’s had more than four catches just once as well. He’s the third-best option of the four but will only be worthwhile to roster if he can find the end zone, and that’s just not a smart bet to make.
Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!
Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast
Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Fantasy Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Fantasy Podcast on our Fantasy YouTube channel.
NFL
What Are the Chances of Getting a Top-5 Pick?

On Wednesday, we explored possible postseason paths for the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 5-6 and sit one game out of the seventh and final AFC playoff spot.
Those playoff scenarios mostly involved winning out to go 11-6, although no 10-7 team has ever failed to make the playoffs since the NFL went to the 17-game schedule in 2021.
But what if things go completely the other way? What if the Bengals fail to win another game with Joe Burrow out for the year with a wrist injury and a defense that ranks among the league’s worst in many metrics and main statistics?
How high of a draft pick could the Bengals reasonably expect to get if they finish 5-12?
What Are the Chances the Bengals Get a Top-5 Pick?
It’s a weird dynamic for fans of the Bengals, many of whom probably can’t bring themselves to openly root against the team during the three hours they are playing. But for the other 165 hours in a week, they find themselves hoping for the highest draft pick possible to help bolster a roster that might be just a little too Burrow-reliant.
And Burrow is the key piece here. There’s a belief that the Bengals can be right back in the playoffs and Super Bowl conversation next year simply by inserting the variable of a healthy Burrow.
It’s not as though the team will be facing a two-to-three-year rebuild if it craters to 5-12. However, ending the season on a nine-game losing streak certainly could cloud the culture Zac Taylor has built and cause some doubt to creep into the locker room.
But those are hypothetical intangibles, and we’re here to talk about math.
Using the PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, I marked the Bengals for losses in each remaining game and then hit the simulate button to run results for the other 86 games remaining on the NFL schedule.
After running dozens of simulations where the Bengals lose out, their average draft spot was 5.8. The highest they picked was fourth, and the lowest was eighth. However, those numbers come with a caveat.
On the latest episode of the PFN #Bengal Podcast, the time has come to turn an eye to 2024.@DallasDRobinson and I assign percentage chances of each pending FA returning and debate possible cap cuts.
Plus our MNF predictions and weekend best bets:https://t.co/bMCMkub1za
— Jay Morrison (@ByJayMorrison) November 29, 2023
In every single simulation, the Bengals finished tied with at least one other team at 5-12.
The tiebreaker for the NFL Draft is strength of schedule (the combined winning percentage of all of your opponents). Among tied teams, the one with the lowest strength of schedule number picks first.
Based on 2022 results, the Bengals came into the season with one of the hardest schedules in the league, and just as that has helped lead to the 5-6 start, it could bite them again come draft time because their current strength of schedule number is .552.
MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart
Only three teams have a tougher strength of schedule, and the Steelers (.561), Browns (.556), and Chiefs (.556) are not going to be involved in a tiebreaker procedure for a top-10 pick in the draft.
The teams most often showing up in the bottom six during the simulations have lower strength of schedules and, therefore, would beat the Bengals in any tiebreaker.
They include:
- Patriots (.544)
- Panthers (.537)
- Cardinals (.533)
- Bears (.456)
- Giants (.474)
- Commanders (.489)
Some people might look at those numbers and think that with six games and 35 percent of the schedule remaining, a lot can change.
But the key to remember is that with the way the NFL schedule is structured — with each team in a division having only three unique games out of 17 — almost every time a Cincinnati opponent loses, the Bengals’ strength of schedule is theoretically lowered. However, that loss is most likely coming against another team the Bengals have played, thereby raising that team’s strength of schedule and creating a wash.
The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs at Jacksonville on Monday. Early projections for Week 14 have the Colts favored by 2 at Paycor Stadium.
The Bengals might be a slight favorite against the Vikings in Week 15, but they’ll be underdogs at the Steelers in Week 16, at the Chiefs in Week 17, and possibly at home against the Browns in Week 18.
Teams with a shot of finishing with five wins or less, their current record, and remaining schedule:
- Panthers (1-10): at Buccaneers (4-7), at Saints (5-6), Falcons (5-6), Packers (5-6), at Jaguars, Buccaneers (4-7)
- Cardinals (2-10): at Steelers (7-4), Bye, 49ers (8-3), at Bears (4-8), at Eagles (10-1), Seahawks (6-5)
- Patriots (2-9): Chargers (4-7), at Steelers (7-4), Chiefs (8-3), at Broncos (6-5), at Bills (6-6), Jets (4-7)
- Buccaneers (4-7): Panthers (1-10), at Falcons (5-6), at Packers (5-6), Jaguars (8-3), Saints (5-6), at Panthers (1-10)
- Titans (4-7): Colts (6-5), at Dolphins (8-3), Texans (6-5), Seahawks (6-5), at Texans (6-5), Jaguars (8-3)
- Jets (4-7): Falcons (5-6), Texans (6-5), at Dolphins (8-3), Commanders (4-8), at Browns (7-4), at Patriots (2-9)
- Chargers (4-7): at Patriots (2-9), Broncos (6-5), at Raiders (5-7), Bills (6-6), at Broncos (6-5), Chiefs (8-3)
- Bears (4-8): Bye, Lions (8-3), at Browns (7-4), Cardinals (2-10), Falcons (5-6), at Packers (5-6),
- Commanders (4-8): Dolphins (8-3), Bye, at Rams (5-6), at Jets (4-7), 49ers (8-3), Cowboys (8-3)
- Giants (4-8): Bye, Packers (5-6), at Saints (5-6), at Eagles (10-1), Rams (5-6), Eagles (10-1)
While Bengals fans might struggle to cheer against the team, they certainly can have guilt-free rooting interests in the other games across the league. Here is a look at Week 13 games involved in the derby for a top-five pick and which team Bengals fans should be pulling for to increase their odds of a better draft pick should the Cincinnati season completely implode.
- Chargers at Patriots: Patriots
- Cardinals at Steelers: Cardinals
- Falcons at Jets: Jets
- Dolphins at Commanders: Commanders
- Colts at Titans: Titans
- Panthers at Buccaneers: Buccaneers
Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more!
Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast
Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Bengals Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms. Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Bengals Podcast on our NFL YouTube channel.
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