NFL

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Quentin Johnston, Jordan Addison, and Others

Published

6 months ago

March 22, 2023

darragh

In a welcome change to years past, the 2023 incoming class of rookies is a breath of fresh air for dynasty, as not only is the wide receiver position top-heavy in talent, but the depth of the class sets it apart. Fantasy football will look very different by the time September rolls around. As the top prospects continue their preparations for the NFL draft, here are my current 2023 dynasty rookie WR rankings

Top 5 Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings 2023

1) Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State

Recording 95 receptions, Jaxon Smith-Njigba set a Big Ten single-season record with 1,606 receiving yards. With Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave sitting out the postseason as they focused on the NFL draft, Smith-Njigba set a Rose Bowl record in 2021 with 347 receiving yards on 15 receptions and was named MVP.

His over-the-shoulder touchdown from C.J. Stroud still plays in my head. Due to a hamstring injury, Smith-Njigba only played in three games in 2022. Yet, his draft stock was already set.

From a technical standpoint, Smith-Njigba checks every box. His hands and route running are phenomenal. He’s an elite separator, has sensational body control, and is extremely intelligent in how he operates over the middle of the field. The only thing missing from Smith-Njigba’s skill set is top-end speed, but that certainly hasn’t hampered his play as of yet.

At the same time, Smith-Njigba doesn’t get anywhere near the credit he deserves for his deceiving physicality and in-play intelligence, seemingly always flashing his numbers and working back to the QB when the play is extended. I don’t see him as a perimeter-centric receiver but someone who can float outside, yet spends most of his reps in the slot, which, as we know, can play a massive role in the more slot/volume-driven NFL.

On the right team, Smith-Njigba could be a high-volume PPR star as a slightly less dynamic CeeDee Lamb or Jerry Jeudy-style player.

2) Quentin Johnston, TCU

The upper tier of the 2023 WR rookie class lacks the elite, clear-cut No. 1 option. There is no Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson in this class. As a whole, the class isn’t going to be breaking any models when it comes to evaluations and projections.

With that said, there is still some top-tier talent available, especially with Quentin Johnston, my No. 2 ranked wide receiver currently, and in Tier 1 of WRs with Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison.

Johnston is the guy for you if you’re a fan of big-body wide receivers like I am. At 6’3″ and 208 pounds, he has a size advantage over 99% of corners and uses every inch of his frame to high-point with the best of them.

MORE: 2023 Dynasty Rookie Rankings

Of my Tier 1 guys, he’s the only one who truly broke out in 2022 and improved his draft stock. With 1,064 yards and six touchdowns on 59 of 94 receiving, Johnston averaged a massive 3.22 YPRR, 18 yards/rec, and an efficient 2.47 YPTPA.

The concern for Johnston is he’s a body catcher, which negates some of the size advantages he has. Additionally, drops are a bit of a red flag, but they felt more to be concentration drops than an overall lack of trust in his hands. This is something that can get cleaned up and will need to be corrected.

While JSN has the edge on Johnston and Addison, draft capital and landing spot will go a long way in determining the final order. These are three completely different archetypes, and each wins in their own way.

3) Jordan Addison, USC

From a refinement-of-skills standpoint, Addison likely takes the crown amongst 2023 rookie WRs. Unfortunately, his 2022 stats likely won’t stand up to others in this class, similar to JSN.

Addison suffered a leg injury against Utah and was seen on crutches but luckily avoided a major injury. He did return to play in the final four games but saw varying usage. In the end, Addison caught 59 of his 79 targets (74.7% catch rate) for 875 yards (2.78 YPRR & 7.0 YAC/R) with eight touchdowns.

The 2021 Biletnikoff winner at Pittsburgh, Addison had more than enough already on film. With 4.49 speed at the NFL Combine, his dynamic play style is more than evident, and it helps in his RAC capabilities.

Addison creates separation at all levels, and his tool belt is full both at the line on the release and at the stem. That will get him targets at the next level because separation is arguably the most important skill set teams look for in a wide receiver.

The “concern” many raise is Addison’s size at 5’11” but roughly 173 pounds. He’s not a universal fit like Johnston is, but I don’t believe Addison is pigeonholed into strictly being a slot receiver. Addison’s nuance and technique will allow him to strive at the next level.

4) Zay Flowers, Boston College

If there is a receiver from outside Tier 1 rankings that is the “Chris Olave of drafts,” it’s Zay Flowers. Someone selected in the second tier that ends up being a massive producer as a rookie and takes a substantial rise in value but is already a well-known name.

The All-ACC wide receiver led the Eagles with 78 receptions for 1,077 yards and 12 touchdowns this year with six games of 100+ yards. Not only that, but Flowers is first in Boston College history in receptions (200), yards (3,056), receiving touchdowns (29), touchdowns in a single season (12), and single-season receptions (78).

At 5’9″, Flowers’ catch radius is a question. With that said, the film already shows he can work outside his frame thanks to his body control, similar to Jahan Dotson from last year’s class but at a higher level. Flowers fights on every play and could be a YAC monster out of the slot, but his route running and play speed are sensational.

The comparisons being thrown around for Flowers are some of the best separators in recent NFL history, with names like Tyler Lockett and even Antonio Brown being thrown around.

Flowers will receive, at minimum, second-round draft capital. Still, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in the first round. Between Flowers and Smith-Njigba, Flowers might even have a higher chance of becoming a No. 1 option.

5) Marvin Mims, Oklahoma

I’ve had my eyes on Marvin Mims for quite some time, but even still, I feel I’ve been underrating what he brings to the NFL. After two strong seasons at Oklahoma in 2020 and 2021, Mims broke out in 2022. Catching 54 of his 87 targets, he recorded 1,082 yards and six touchdowns for the Sooners, including four games of over 100 yards and two with 160+.

Remember, he did this despite losing not only HC Lincoln Riley but also QB Caleb Williams, who went on to win the Heisman with USC.

Explosion is Mims’ game. Not only can he get off the line in a flash, but his ability to win downfield and produce after the catch leads to explosive plays. While he is a smaller receiver (5’11” and 183), not everyone needs to look like Calvin Johnson to be effective.

MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies

His route tree at Oklahoma left many wanting more, but that was by design. Mims addressed this at the NFL Combine, saying the OU coaching staff didn’t ask players to run a technical and wide route tree. So it’s not to say Mims doesn’t have crisp breaks and routes. I believe he does, it’s just that it wasn’t asked of him. What he did show was elite hands, superb ball tracking, body control, and explosiveness.

With that said, Mims checks all the boxes. He was one of the best in the nation against man coverage, he ran a 4.38 40-yard dash in Indy, with a 40″ vertical and 11’3″ board, resulting in a RAS score of 9.14. Mims has a 96th-percentile aDOT, 91st-percentile burst score, averaged 20.1 YPR, and his breakout season placed him in the 96th percentile.

The No. 5 spot will likely come down between Mims and Jalin Hyatt. Mims is a bit more of a universal fit, whereas Hyatt is more scheme dependent. However, Hyatt changes the math on the defense and exposes any little miscommunication or handoff in coverage.

Rather than death by a thousand paper cuts like Smith-Njigba, it’s a one-punch knockout from Hyatt. One thing that is certain is Hyatt has some of the best hands in the entire class. Unlike with Johnston, you never see a ball hit his chest.

If Hyatt goes to a team with an aggressive scheme and a QB with an accurate deep ball, he’ll likely vault Mims in the final rankings. When Hyatt puts his head down and goes, there is no keeping up with him. If he runs every route, not just ones with a vertical release, at full speed, it could be devastating but glorious for fantasy. I hope this happens as Hyatt has the skill set to either be elite or another “better for the NFL than fantasy” player.

Dynasty Rookie WR Rankings: 6-25

6) Jalin Hyatt, Tennessee
7) Josh Downs, UNC
8) Rashee Rice, SMU
9) Jayden Reed, Michigan State
10) Kayshon Boutte, LSU
11) Cedric Tillman, Tennessee
12) Xavier Hutchinson, Iowa State
13) Puka Nacua, BYU
14) Jonathan Mingo, Ole Miss
15) Parker Washington, Penn State
16) Charlie Jones, Purdue
17) Nathaniel Dell, Houston
18) A.T. Perry, Wake Forrest
19) Bryce Ford-Wheaton, West Virginia
20) Rakim Jarrett, Maryland
21) Trey Palmer, Nebraska
22) Michael Wilson, Stanford
23) Matt Landers, Arkansas
24) Ronnie Bell, Michigan
25) Andrei Iosivas, Princeton

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NFL

Najee Harris, Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, and Others

Published

40 mins ago

September 24, 2023

darragh

Tonight, we have a Sunday Night Football matchup between two AFC playoff hopefuls — the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders.

The Raiders have NFL star power on their side, with Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. The Steelers are looking to get Najee Harris going, or perhaps they lean more into Jaylen Warren. For this Sunday Night Football matchup, how should we be approaching Steelers vs. Raiders player prop betting picks? We break those down for tonight and give you our favorite plays.

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Top Steelers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets to Target

Our team of betting experts give out their favorite player prop bets for Steelers vs. Raiders on Sunday Night Football.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.

Kenny Pickett Player Props

Passing Yards: 221.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -195)
Pass Completions: 20.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Pass Attempts: 31.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

I don’t think Kenny Pickett is an NFL-caliber starting quarterback. But he also doesn’t have an NFL-caliber play-caller doing him any favors.

The Raiders will present the weakest opposition so far, meaning this could be the week Pickett breaks out. That has me hesitant to take any of his unders. And I’m certainly not taking any overs. Pass on the Pickett props.

Najee Harris Player Props

Rushing Yards: 50.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Receiving Yards: 10.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Receptions: 1.5 (Over -150/Under +120)
Longest Rush: 13.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +150
First Touchdown Scorer: +850

Even with runs of 21 and 17 yards, Najee Harris went under his rushing yardage line on Monday night. I don’t think Harris is particularly good, but I also don’t think his struggles are entirely his fault.

The Steelers offensive line is not generating any yards before contact for their running backs. And it’s not as if Harris has had any cupcake matchups. This week is the closest he will get.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

I still don’t trust Harris enough to make an official pick on his over, but I can offer a lean.

Lean: Longest rush over 13.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)

Jaylen Warren Player Props

Rushing Yards: 28.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Receiving Yards: 15.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Receptions: 2.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Longest Rush: 10.5 (Over -130/Under -105)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +205
First Touchdown Scorer: +1100

Last week, Jaylen Warren vastly outproduced Harris, primarily in the passing game. Warren caught four passes for a career-high 66 yards. He is consistently playing around 40% of the snaps.

While Warren is clearly the better passing game option, he’s still run just 31 routes in two games. He does lead all running backs in targets with 12, though. Given the favorable matchup, I think we get a solid game out of Warren.

Lean: Over 47.5 rush + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

George Pickens Player Props

Receiving Yards: 51.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Receptions: 4.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +175
First Touchdown Scorer: +1000

Operating without Diontae Johnson, George Pickens displayed alpha upside, catching four passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. However, his performance wasn’t nearly as good as it should’ve been.

Pickens saw 10 targets, which is great, yet only caught four of them. The low catch rate is a product of poor play design and uncatchable targets.

The Raiders present an easier matchup, but I’m not confident enough to make any pick here. Pass.

Pat Freiermuth Player Props

Receiving Yards: 31.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Receptions: 3.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Longest Reception: 15.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +220
First Touchdown Scorer: +1200

I know I want to fade Pat Freiermuth, who is a complete afterthought in the Steelers offense. I couldn’t decide how. So, I decided to split the bet.

This is a single-unit fade on Freiermuth in the form of two bets. So far, Freiermuth has exactly two catches for five yards on the season. His usage has been erratic, playing 50% of the snaps in Week 1 and 75% of the snaps in Week 2 (although a big hit to the chest may be to blame for Week 1).

Sep 18, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth (88) is stopped by Cleveland Browns linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (6) and safety Juan Thornhill (1) during the second quarter at Acrisure Stadium.

In Week 1, Freiermuth saw four targets. In Week 2, despite playing more and running two more routes, he saw just one target.

Simply put, Kenny Pickett’s first read is almost never the Muth. So, my read is to fade him.

Picks: Under 32.5 receiving yards (-113 on Ceasars) and under 3.5 receptions (-131 on Caesars)

Jimmy Garoppolo Player Props

Passing Yards: 239.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Pass Completions: 20.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Pass Attempts: 30.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

I am not quite sure why Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yardage line is so high. He’s thrown for 185 and 200 yards in each of his first two games. One was a narrow win. The other was a blowout loss. Regardless of the game script, Garoppolo isn’t airing it out.

Now, his line is set at 40 yards higher than his best game so far. It’s a bit confusing. The under just seems so obvious. Perhaps I’m falling into a trap, but I have to recommend it.

Pick: Under 240.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)

Josh Jacobs Player Props

Rushing Yards: 71.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Receiving Yards: 16.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Receptions: 2.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
Longest Rush: 14.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -115
First Touchdown Scorer: +450

Last week, Josh Jacobs had a truly historic game. He had one of the worst rushing performances in the history of the NFL. You, the learned reader, sitting right there on your couch, had more rushing yards than Jacobs last week. He ran the ball nine times for negative two yards. Yes, you read that correctly.

Now, we’re supposed to believe he can run for over 70 yards? I have no idea what to make of Jacobs. The volume is there. The production hasn’t been. We’ve already got plenty of action on this game. Pass.

Davante Adams Player Props

Receiving Yards: 76.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Receptions: 5.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
Longest Reception: 25.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +110
First Touchdown Scorer: +600

Davante Adams — still good at football. He’s caught six passes in each of his first two games for 66 and 84 yards, respectively. Garoppolo isn’t throwing much, but when he is, he looks Adams’ way.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

This week, Jakobi Meyers is back, which should serve to reduce Adams’ target share a little bit. The Steelers had a lot of trouble defending Amari Cooper last week, but Adams’ lines are set high enough that I am not looking to pounce. This is another pass.

Jakobi Meyers Player Props

Receiving Yards: 53.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Receptions: 4.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +180
First Touchdown Scorer: +900

Jakobi Meyers missed last week’s game with a concussion. He’s back now, and when we last saw him, he caught nine of 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns.

Adams is still the clear WR1, though. With just a one-game sample size, I don’t really have a feel for Meyers’ role. Pass.

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NFL

Same Game Parlay Picks and Predictions

Published

2 hours ago

September 24, 2023

darragh

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders have both split their first two games, and the spread reflects the expectation that this one comes down to the wire.

When considering same game parlay picks in a spot like this, you’re best off working backward. Decide what you think the outcome looks like and then build the story of how we get there.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

Spread
Raiders -2.5
Moneyline
Raiders -142, Steelers +120
Total
43

We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire and he/she is on the hook.

Trivia Question: Who has more career touchdowns as a member of the Raiders franchise: Davante Adams or Jerry Rice?

More often than not, I will have the winner of the game worked into my same game parlay picks, but that’s not the case here. The books have this labeled as little more than a coin flip, and I tend to agree, so I’m not going to force it.

What is it that we “know”? Of course, we “know” nothing for sure, but there are some components of these teams that are more projectable than others, and that’s what we need to target.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

On the Steelers side, we saw them play without Diontae Johnson for the first time, and the result was 34.5% of the targets going to George Pickens.

There was no real surprise there, but it was good to see and is something I’m happy to back against a Raiders defense that has allowed opponents to complete 81.7% this season.

Kenny Pickett & George Pickens (71-yd TD)

Pickens reached a top speed of 20.56 mph on the play, the fastest speed of his career.

🔹 Target Separation: 8.4 yds
🔹 Yards After Catch: 57 (career-high)
🔹 YAC Over Expected: +35 (career-high)

Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/pFI8MHhjgA

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 19, 2023

If my finished product isn’t juicy enough for you, the Pickens leg is your spot. In seven career games with at least four catches, he’s registered at least 57 receiving yards in six of them and finished north of 80 in the majority of them.

Let’s shift to the pro-Raiders side of this game. Did you know that they’ve scored on their first possession in seven straight games? In five of those instances, they found the end zone, supporting early Raider angles and possible first TD dart throws.

That matches up nicely with the Steelers being outscored by 21 points in the first half of their past seven games (+28 in second halves in those games). I can’t imagine that a short work week helps Pittsburgh come out strong, so I’m using those trends when building my SGP.

Now, we get into the fantasy football portion of the segment. Josh Jacobs. He has no touchdowns and no big plays to speak of through two weeks, not exactly what we were expecting after a career year. But let’s take a deep breath.

MORE: Steelers vs. Raiders Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Jacobs had 19 of 20 RB carries in Week 1 when the Raiders were healthy and competitive, something we expect to be the case this week. He runs behind an offensive line labeled as a top-5, and that has largely been a profitable spot to be against the Steelers.

Since the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh has allowed 5.6 yards per carry to starting RBs (or committees when the starter isn’t clear) who play with a top-5 offensive line by our Dalton Miller’s ranks.

Volume and efficiency are both things I’m comfortable counting on for Jacobs in this spot. For his career, Jacobs has 10 games with at least 15 carries and 5.0 yards per carry. In those games

14 rushing touchdowns
137.5 rushing yards per game

Let’s zoom out a bit and just look at those 15-carry games. He has run for 35 scores in those 42 games and has cleared 70 yards on the ground 29 times.

In the majority of those failures to reach 70 yards, it was in part due to the opponent scoring at least 27 points. The Steelers have an implied total of 20 points in this spot, so I’m not sweating a high-scoring game.

Trivia Answer: Rice leads the way with 18 (Adams has 15)
Same Game Parlay Pick: Raiders 1H (-0.5), Jacobs 70+ rushing yards, Jacobs anytime TD, George Pickens 50+ receiving yards
Odds: +600 (DraftKings)

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NFL

Will Jimmy Garoppolo Get The Win in His Home Debut in Las Vegas?

Published

3 hours ago

September 24, 2023

darragh

For Sunday Night Football this week, we have the Pittsburgh Steelers vs. the Las Vegas Raiders. The favorite for Steelers vs. Raiders flipped in the middle of the week, as Las Vegas is now a 2.5-point favorite after they opened as 1.5-point underdogs.

Both of these teams have struggled on offense through the first two weeks of the season, as they each rank in the bottom three in yards per game. After a really impressive preseason, Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has struggled so far this season, with his 19.9 QBR being the lowest in the NFL.

Meanwhile, for the Raiders, Josh Jacobs is hoping to get back on track after rushing for negative yards last week.

For the Steelers, this will be their first road game of the season. Yet, it will be the Raiders’ home debut and Jimmy Garoppolo’s first regular-season game playing in front of the Las Vegas crowd.

In a matchup of two 1-1 teams, which will improve to be above .500 through the first three weeks of the season? Our team of betting experts gives out their Steelers vs. Raiders predictions and picks against the spread, point total, player props, and more.

Steelers vs. Raiders Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless stated otherwise.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Prediction

Spread
Raiders -2.5
Moneyline
Steelers +120, Raiders -142
Total
43
Game Time
8:20 p.m. EST
Location
Allegiant Stadium
How To Watch
NBC, Peacock

Bearman: People can say it was “Steelers football” or “Steelers DNA” or whatever they want for Monday night’s win over the Cleveland Browns, but I saw it as Deshaun Watson handing them the game and Pittsburgh getting bailed out.

MORE: Week 3 NFL Betting Predictions

The Steelers offense did next to nothing, with a total of 255 yards, 71 of which came on their lone offensive scoring play. Play like that again tonight, and it’ll be all Las Vegas.

The Raiders looked good in their Week 1 win in Denver but then walked into the Buffalo Bills hangover buzzsaw. I like them here.

Pick: Raiders -2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)

Blewis: Pittsburgh needed two defensive touchdowns to beat Cleveland last week. After the Steelers’ starting offense scored a touchdown on every drive in the preseason, the narrative has completely flipped. So far this season, they’re only averaging 247 yards per game.

Josh Jacobs should have a bounce-back game against a Steelers run defense without Cam Heyward, allowing the Raiders to play ball-control football.

I got the under while it was at 43.5, but I would still play it at this number. Keep fading the Steelers offense while you can, especially when they’re due for regression in turnover luck.

Pick: Under 43 (-110 at FanDuel)

Soppe: We saw the Steelers play without Diontae Johnson for the first time on Monday night, and the result was 34.5% of the targets going to George Pickens. No real surprise there, but it was good to see and is something I’m happy to back against a Raiders defense that has allowed opponents to complete 81.7% of their passes this season.

The explosive second-year receiver averages 15.8 yards per catch for his career, and now we get a chance to marry that per catch upside with a strong target expectation against a porous secondary. What am I missing?

Pick: George Pickens over 51.5 receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Katz: I know I want to fade Pat Freiermuth, who is a complete afterthought in the Steelers offense. I couldn’t decide how. So, I decided to split the bet.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

In Week 1, Freiermuth saw four targets. In Week 2, despite playing more and running two more routes, he saw just one target.

Simply put, Kenny Pickett’s first read is almost never the Muth. So, my read is to fade him.

Picks: Pat Freiermuth under 32.5 receiving yards (-113 at Caesars) and under 3.5 receptions (-131 at Caesars)

Katz: I am not quite sure why Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yardage line is so high. He’s thrown for 185 and 200 yards in each of his first two games. One was a narrow win. The other was a blowout loss. Regardless of the game script, Garoppolo isn’t airing it out.

Now, his line is set 40 yards higher than his best game so far. It’s a bit confusing. The under just seems so obvious. Perhaps I’m falling into a trap, but I have to recommend it.

Pick: Jimmy Garoppolo under 240.5 passing yards (-115 at BetMGM)