So the Miami Dolphins are home after winning their first two games on the road, while the Denver Broncos are 0-2 after losing their first two games at home. Seems like a mismatch, right? Check out the betting odds and best bet prediction for Sunday’s matchup.

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S. 

Broncos vs. Dolphins Betting Lines, Start Time, and More

All odds from DraftKings Sportsbook.

• Spread: Dolphins -6.5
• Moneyline: Broncos (+235); Dolphins (-290)
• Over/Under: 48
• Game time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• Location: Hard Rock Stadium
• Channel: CBS

Game Prediction

It seems like it’s asking a lot for the Broncos to try and slow down the league’s No. 1 offense in its own building. But that is the situation facing Denver as it travels to take on Miami in what appears to be one of the most lopsided games, on paper, in Week 3.

Miami is rolling with an offense that leads the league in passing yards (355.0 YPG) total yards (462.0 YPG) and has scored 60 total points in two games. QB Tua Tagovailoa is averaging a league-high 357.5 passing yards per game and has been well-protected, getting sacked just once in two games.

Tyreek Hill has a league-best three touchdown receptions and is averaging almost 16 yards a reception (15.9). And Raheem Mostert is coming off a 121-yard, two-TD effort on the ground last week. Mostert is tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns with three.

Perhaps the biggest dilemma facing this Dolphins offense centers on the health of wideout Jaylen Waddle. The big-play receiver was in concussion protocol for much of this week and was officially listed as questionable in Friday’s injury report. Waddle’s absence could level the playing field in this game, at least a little bit.

So, just how can Denver keep it close? They had to find some solace in the fact that they put nearly 400 yards (399) on a pretty good Commanders defense last week, although 50 of those yards did come on a Hail Mary TD throw on the final play from scrimmage.

Russell Wilson’s numbers say he’s well on his way to erasing the horrible 2022 season. Through two games, Wilson is completing 68% of his throws, with five TD passes and just one interception. His passer rating — 108.5 — is top five in the league so far (fourth) and is miles ahead of last season (84.4, 27th in NFL).

Defensively, Denver followed up a good effort in its season opener vs. the Raiders by getting roughed up through the air and on the ground by the Commanders last week. And if you can’t slow down the Commanders in Denver, can you really be expected to slow down the fastest offense in the league in their home opener?

MORE: NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions 

For the Broncos to keep it close, they will need to keep it a low-scoring game. Even with Waddle’s status in doubt, it’s difficult to see Miami unable to score at least four touchdowns in this matchup. Anything less than a touchdown to give feels like a gift.

Thank you for the gift.

Best Bet: Dolphins -6.5 (-115 at DraftKings SportsBook)

Tonight, we have a Sunday Night Football matchup between two AFC playoff hopefuls — the Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders.

The Raiders have NFL star power on their side, with Davante Adams and Josh Jacobs. The Steelers are looking to get Najee Harris going, or perhaps they lean more into Jaylen Warren. For this Sunday Night Football matchup, how should we be approaching Steelers vs. Raiders player prop betting picks? We break those down for tonight and give you our favorite plays.

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

Top Steelers vs. Raiders Player Prop Bets to Target

Our team of betting experts give out their favorite player prop bets for Steelers vs. Raiders on Sunday Night Football.

All odds are from DraftKings Sportsbook unless noted otherwise.

Kenny Pickett Player Props

• Passing Yards: 221.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +150/Under -195)
• Pass Completions: 20.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
• Pass Attempts: 31.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over +105/Under -135)

I don’t think Kenny Pickett is an NFL-caliber starting quarterback. But he also doesn’t have an NFL-caliber play-caller doing him any favors.

The Raiders will present the weakest opposition so far, meaning this could be the week Pickett breaks out. That has me hesitant to take any of his unders. And I’m certainly not taking any overs. Pass on the Pickett props.

Najee Harris Player Props

• Rushing Yards: 50.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Receiving Yards: 10.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
• Receptions: 1.5 (Over -150/Under +120)
• Longest Rush: 13.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +150
• First Touchdown Scorer: +850

Even with runs of 21 and 17 yards, Najee Harris went under his rushing yardage line on Monday night. I don’t think Harris is particularly good, but I also don’t think his struggles are entirely his fault.

The Steelers offensive line is not generating any yards before contact for their running backs. And it’s not as if Harris has had any cupcake matchups. This week is the closest he will get.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Survivor Picks

I still don’t trust Harris enough to make an official pick on his over, but I can offer a lean.

Lean: Longest rush over 13.5 yards (-120 at DraftKings)

Jaylen Warren Player Props

• Rushing Yards: 28.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
• Receiving Yards: 15.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
• Receptions: 2.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
• Longest Rush: 10.5 (Over -130/Under -105)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +205
• First Touchdown Scorer: +1100

Last week, Jaylen Warren vastly outproduced Harris, primarily in the passing game. Warren caught four passes for a career-high 66 yards. He is consistently playing around 40% of the snaps.

While Warren is clearly the better passing game option, he’s still run just 31 routes in two games. He does lead all running backs in targets with 12, though. Given the favorable matchup, I think we get a solid game out of Warren.

Lean: Over 47.5 rush + receiving yards (-115 at DraftKings)

George Pickens Player Props

• Receiving Yards: 51.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Receptions: 4.5 (Over +110/Under -140)
• Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +175
• First Touchdown Scorer: +1000

Operating without Diontae Johnson, George Pickens displayed alpha upside, catching four passes for 127 yards and a touchdown. However, his performance wasn’t nearly as good as it should’ve been.

Pickens saw 10 targets, which is great, yet only caught four of them. The low catch rate is a product of poor play design and uncatchable targets.

The Raiders present an easier matchup, but I’m not confident enough to make any pick here. Pass.

Pat Freiermuth Player Props

• Receiving Yards: 31.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
• Receptions: 3.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
• Longest Reception: 15.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +220
• First Touchdown Scorer: +1200

I know I want to fade Pat Freiermuth, who is a complete afterthought in the Steelers offense. I couldn’t decide how. So, I decided to split the bet.

This is a single-unit fade on Freiermuth in the form of two bets. So far, Freiermuth has exactly two catches for five yards on the season. His usage has been erratic, playing 50% of the snaps in Week 1 and 75% of the snaps in Week 2 (although a big hit to the chest may be to blame for Week 1).

In Week 1, Freiermuth saw four targets. In Week 2, despite playing more and running two more routes, he saw just one target.

Simply put, Kenny Pickett’s first read is almost never the Muth. So, my read is to fade him.

Picks: Under 32.5 receiving yards (-113 on Ceasars) and under 3.5 receptions (-131 on Caesars)

Jimmy Garoppolo Player Props

• Passing Yards: 239.5 (Over +105/Under -135)
• Pass Touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
• Pass Completions: 20.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
• Pass Attempts: 30.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
• Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -120/Under -110)

I am not quite sure why Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yardage line is so high. He’s thrown for 185 and 200 yards in each of his first two games. One was a narrow win. The other was a blowout loss. Regardless of the game script, Garoppolo isn’t airing it out.

Now, his line is set at 40 yards higher than his best game so far. It’s a bit confusing. The under just seems so obvious. Perhaps I’m falling into a trap, but I have to recommend it.

Pick: Under 240.5 passing yards (-115 on BetMGM)

Josh Jacobs Player Props

• Rushing Yards: 71.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
• Receiving Yards: 16.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Receptions: 2.5 (Over -120/Under -110)
• Longest Rush: 14.5 (Over -125/Under -105)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: -115
• First Touchdown Scorer: +450

Last week, Josh Jacobs had a truly historic game. He had one of the worst rushing performances in the history of the NFL. You, the learned reader, sitting right there on your couch, had more rushing yards than Jacobs last week. He ran the ball nine times for negative two yards. Yes, you read that correctly.

Now, we’re supposed to believe he can run for over 70 yards? I have no idea what to make of Jacobs. The volume is there. The production hasn’t been. We’ve already got plenty of action on this game. Pass.

Davante Adams Player Props

• Receiving Yards: 76.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Receptions: 5.5 (Over -140/Under +110)
• Longest Reception: 25.5 (Over -110/Under -120)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +110
• First Touchdown Scorer: +600

Davante Adams — still good at football. He’s caught six passes in each of his first two games for 66 and 84 yards, respectively. Garoppolo isn’t throwing much, but when he is, he looks Adams’ way.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

This week, Jakobi Meyers is back, which should serve to reduce Adams’ target share a little bit. The Steelers had a lot of trouble defending Amari Cooper last week, but Adams’ lines are set high enough that I am not looking to pounce. This is another pass.

Jakobi Meyers Player Props

• Receiving Yards: 53.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Receptions: 4.5 (Over +100/Under -130)
• Longest Reception: 21.5 (Over -115/Under -115)
• Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +180
• First Touchdown Scorer: +900

Jakobi Meyers missed last week’s game with a concussion. He’s back now, and when we last saw him, he caught nine of 10 targets for 81 yards and two touchdowns.

Adams is still the clear WR1, though. With just a one-game sample size, I don’t really have a feel for Meyers’ role. Pass.

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Las Vegas Raiders have both split their first two games, and the spread reflects the expectation that this one comes down to the wire.

When considering same game parlay picks in a spot like this, you’re best off working backward. Decide what you think the outcome looks like and then build the story of how we get there.

Our Betting Lines page has the freshest lines and promos to get BANG for your buck. PFN’s FREE Parlay Calculator and Betting Odds Calculator are also available for your betting process! New to sports betting? Check out our guide on How to Bet on the NFL. Visit our Sports Betting Legal Tracker on how to bet legally in the U.S.

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Las Vegas Raiders Odds

• Spread
  Raiders -2.5
• Moneyline
  Raiders -142, Steelers +120
• Total
  43

We here at Soppe HQ like to encourage responsible gaming, and in that vein, I’ll always offer you a trivia question off the top of these articles. Pose this question to a buddy you are watching the game with. Answer correctly, and you pay for the SGP; misfire and he/she is on the hook.

Trivia Question: Who has more career touchdowns as a member of the Raiders franchise: Davante Adams or Jerry Rice?

More often than not, I will have the winner of the game worked into my same game parlay picks, but that’s not the case here. The books have this labeled as little more than a coin flip, and I tend to agree, so I’m not going to force it.

What is it that we “know”? Of course, we “know” nothing for sure, but there are some components of these teams that are more projectable than others, and that’s what we need to target.

MORE: NFL Week 3 Betting Predictions

On the Steelers side, we saw them play without Diontae Johnson for the first time, and the result was 34.5% of the targets going to George Pickens.

There was no real surprise there, but it was good to see and is something I’m happy to back against a Raiders defense that has allowed opponents to complete 81.7% this season.

Kenny Pickett & George Pickens (71-yd TD)

Pickens reached a top speed of 20.56 mph on the play, the fastest speed of his career.

🔹 Target Separation: 8.4 yds
🔹 Yards After Catch: 57 (career-high)
🔹 YAC Over Expected: +35 (career-high)

Powered by @awscloud pic.twitter.com/pFI8MHhjgA

— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) September 19, 2023

If my finished product isn’t juicy enough for you, the Pickens leg is your spot. In seven career games with at least four catches, he’s registered at least 57 receiving yards in six of them and finished north of 80 in the majority of them.

Let’s shift to the pro-Raiders side of this game. Did you know that they’ve scored on their first possession in seven straight games? In five of those instances, they found the end zone, supporting early Raider angles and possible first TD dart throws.

That matches up nicely with the Steelers being outscored by 21 points in the first half of their past seven games (+28 in second halves in those games). I can’t imagine that a short work week helps Pittsburgh come out strong, so I’m using those trends when building my SGP.

Now, we get into the fantasy football portion of the segment. Josh Jacobs. He has no touchdowns and no big plays to speak of through two weeks, not exactly what we were expecting after a career year. But let’s take a deep breath.

MORE: Steelers vs. Raiders Start ‘Em, Sit ‘Em

Jacobs had 19 of 20 RB carries in Week 1 when the Raiders were healthy and competitive, something we expect to be the case this week. He runs behind an offensive line labeled as a top-5, and that has largely been a profitable spot to be against the Steelers.

Since the beginning of last season, Pittsburgh has allowed 5.6 yards per carry to starting RBs (or committees when the starter isn’t clear) who play with a top-5 offensive line by our Dalton Miller’s ranks.

Volume and efficiency are both things I’m comfortable counting on for Jacobs in this spot. For his career, Jacobs has 10 games with at least 15 carries and 5.0 yards per carry. In those games

• 14 rushing touchdowns
• 137.5 rushing yards per game

Let’s zoom out a bit and just look at those 15-carry games. He has run for 35 scores in those 42 games and has cleared 70 yards on the ground 29 times.

In the majority of those failures to reach 70 yards, it was in part due to the opponent scoring at least 27 points. The Steelers have an implied total of 20 points in this spot, so I’m not sweating a high-scoring game.

Trivia Answer: Rice leads the way with 18 (Adams has 15)
Same Game Parlay Pick: Raiders 1H (-0.5), Jacobs 70+ rushing yards, Jacobs anytime TD, George Pickens 50+ receiving yards
Odds: +600 (DraftKings)

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