NFL

NFL Conference Championship Predictions and Picks Against the Spread

Published

1 year ago

January 28, 2023

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We’ve reached the Conference Championship games. Four teams enter. Two teams leave. Here’s a final look at our predictions and picks for both games. The following betting odds are for picks against the spread as well as moneylines based on DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Conference Championship Predictions and Picks

Just like during the NFL regular season, the playoffs feature the expected, the moderately unexpected, and the completely unexpected. When betting on point spreads and moneylines, we need to focus on the first two outcomes.

What are the highest-probability game scripts? Which interesting subplots could emerge? For example, we cannot anticipate when a little-used fullback will fall into the end zone twice in one half. But we can assess the likelihood that one team’s backfield will earn more scoring opportunities.

With that in mind, here are our preliminary assessments of how each game might proceed.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers

Date: Sunday, Jan. 29
Start time: 3 p.m. ET

To a casual bettor, the point-spread shift since Monday (from -3 to -2.5) might seem negligible. But in the history of the NFL, 12.7% of games have been decided by exactly three points.

So that shift from -3 to -2.5 is significant. A three-point Philly win was a push on Monday. Now it’s a win if you pick the Eagles and a loss if you take the 49ers.

The market knows why it did this. The Eagles are at home against a 49ers backfield that, as of Friday morning, still hadn’t been healthy enough to practice this week. Meanwhile, Jake Elliott has hit 16 of his last 17 field-goal attempts. Philly’s elite pass defense should be able to contain Brock Purdy, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

And yet, I’m not deterred. I went with San Francisco at +3 a few days ago. Unless Christian McCaffrey is somehow inactive or officially limited, I’m sticking with San Francisco at +2.5. (And frankly, if McCaffrey sits, the Eagles probably will jump to nine- or even 10-point favorites, so this could all be moot.)

No team has yielded fewer passing yards than Philadelphia, and no team has racked up more sacks. But passing isn’t the most direct path to a mini-Niners upset. Instead, McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell (assuming they’ll be good to go) could combine for 30+ touches, with Purdy dumping off to his backfield 8-10 times. We might also see more Samuel runs against a defense yielding 4.6 yards per carry.

MORE: Thursday 49ers vs. Eagles Injury Report

The rest will be up to San Francisco’s vaunted defense, which has stepped up in the last six quarters, yielding only 18 points while forcing four turnovers.

How will the Eagles adjust to the 49ers’ elite defense, which is yielding a league-best 3.4 yards per carry? The challenge for Philly is that they make their living on the ground. They’re third in rushing attempts and No. 1 in rushing scores with 32. For context, the No. 2 team has only 24 rushing touchdowns.

I expect San Francisco to force the Eagles to win through the air, while Philadelphia firmly sticks with a run-friendly game plan for as long as possible. To me, there are no obvious answers. But the major questions are (a) whether Philly’s pass rush can rattle Purdy, and (b) whether the 49ers’ run defense will force Jalen Hurts to play like a near-elite pocket passer — something he isn’t — at least not yet.

Against-the-spread prediction: 49ers
Moneyline winner: 49ers

Kansas City Chiefs (-1) vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Date: Sunday, Jan. 29
Start time: 6:30 p.m. ET

Tom Brady and Peyton Manning faced off four times in the AFC Championship Game. Manning won the final three meetings — once with the Colts and twice with the Broncos.

Brady was 8-1 in AFC title games versus other quarterbacks. But with Super Bowl appearances on the line, he met his match three times against another all-time great.

MORE: PFN Betting Guide

Sunday will mark the fifth straight AFC title game for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. All five have been at home. In a strange coincidence — connecting one generation to the next — KC lost its first Conference Championship during this run to Brady’s Patriots. Two years later, the budding franchise lost in the Super Bowl to Brady’s Buccaneers.

And last year brought more disappointment, with a shocking loss to the upstart Bengals, which barely eked into the postseason at 10-7 (thanks in large part to an incredible comeback and last-second field goal versus these same Chiefs in Week 17).

Cincy was a seven-point underdog in last year’s AFC title game. The Chiefs’ final three home wins during the regular season — two versus eventual playoff teams — were by a combined score of 106-28. So yeah, they were ready.

A year later, questions (doubts?) are growing. KC’s favored by a point because they’re at home. If this were in Cincinnati, assuredly, the Bengals would be favored by more. After all, the Bengals have beaten them three times in less than 13 months. Their defense has improved in the interim, while the Chiefs’ D — particularly with respect to points surrendered — is deeply subpar.

Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow might be an early version of last generation’s Brady vs. Manning. The Chiefs have dominated, but one ring doesn’t make them a dynasty. And the Bengals have only one Super Bowl appearance. There’s still time for both teams — both stellar QBs — to grow into perennial powerhouses.

For now, we’re left with two teams that can rack up yards on the ground and through the air. The Bengals’ defense arguably is better, but the counterweight is that their offensive line is far worse. Only Brady has had less time to throw than Burrow this season.

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When these teams last met in Week 13, Joe Mixon was sidelined. But that didn’t stop the Bengals from employing a run-heavy offense, with Samaje Perine (21 carries) and Burrow (11 carries) controlling the time of possession on 4.8 ypc, limiting Burrow to only one sack. If Cincinnati can replicate that strategy on Sunday, they could be tough to beat.

Of course, I expect the Chiefs to make adjustments. They often do. That’s why they’re playing in their fifth straight AFC Championship.

Against-the-spread prediction: Chiefs
Moneyline winner: Chiefs

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Taylor Swift Is Shown Chugging a Beer on the Jumbotron at Super Bowl 58

Published

2 months ago

February 12, 2024

darragh

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Global superstar Taylor Swift made it to the big game to support her boyfriend, Kansas City Chiefs star tight end Travis Kelce. In the second quarter, it was evident that she was having a good time at the Super Bowl after taking a 12-hour flight from Tokyo the night prior.

Taylor Swift Seen Chugging Beer at Super Bowl

Swift’s attendance has been highly anticipated, as many fans questioned whether she would be able to make it to the big game since she had been in Japan until Saturday for her Eras Tour.

Sure enough, she made it to the Super Bowl and was seen making a grand entrance alongside Blake Lively and Ice Spice.

Swift made it back to the States with plenty of time to make it to Allegiant Stadium to support Kelce. After a leg of her Eras Tour, where she performed several nights in Japan, the singer appeared to let loose.

In a box full of friends, Swift was shown chugging a beer with Ashley Avignone. She was shown on the jumbotron and slammed her cup down after she finished her beer.

Legend 😂 pic.twitter.com/hk27JTAXZ9

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) February 12, 2024

There was a mix of cheers and boos as Swift was shown on the big screen, and a long pass to Mecole Hardman was the only highlight of the first half for Swift and her friends. The 49ers led the Chiefs, 10-0, late in the second quarter.

On social media, Swift garnered plenty of support from NFL fans.

“If you’re hating on her you can kick rocks man she’s the best,” one user posted on X.

“The one thing I learned this season is that she is actually fun,” another said.

“Booing Taylor Swift chugging a beer is so soft. She’s just one of us now and I respect it ,” another posted.

At the time of the beer chugging, Kelce, Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, has had one catch for a single yard. It came on the first possession, which ended up being a three-and-out. The Kansas City Chiefs hadn’t done much otherwise.

They did have a deep pass play to Hardman, which put them in the red zone, but Isiah Pacheco fumbled on the very next play — one that Kelce was surprisingly on the sideline for.

Swift and Kelce have garnered much media attention as their romance has taken off throughout this NFL season.

Swift was able to support her boyfriend at many of his games throughout the final stretch of the season, as her Eras Tour was on a break. But starting on Feb. 7, she went back on the road.

MORE: NFL World Reacts to Unbelievable Super Bowl Trick Play

Despite performing in Tokyo the night before the Super Bowl, she was able to make it in time to support her boyfriend due to the time difference and is having a good time doing so.

As the 2023 NFL season comes to a close, the 2024 NFL Draft is on the horizon. Pro Football Network has you covered with everything from team draft needs to the Top 100 prospects available. Plus, fire up PFN’s Mock Draft Simulator to put yourself in the general manager’s seat and make all the calls!

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What Happened to the 49ers Linebacker?

Published

2 months ago

February 12, 2024

darragh

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The San Francisco 49ers sustained a massive blow during the second quarter of Super Bowl 58, as linebacker Dre Greenlaw left the game on a medical cart.

CBS Sports confirmed that the veteran Greenlaw suffered an Achilles tear, ruling him out for the rest of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs.

What Happened to Dre Greenlaw?

The outside linebacker, who had already been battling past injuries to his hamstrings and calves, left with what appeared to be a leg injury.

And somehow, his left leg looked like it buckled as he tried to trot onto the field with the Niners’ defense.

#49ers LB Dre Greenlaw appeared to suffer an injury while running on the field.

pic.twitter.com/zx0l1NjTew

— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) February 12, 2024

Greenlaw clutched his left leg in agony before being helped off the field.

CBS Sports sideline reporter Evan Washburn reported that the outside linebacker left with what was ruled as a lower leg injury. He was later determined to sustain an Achilles injury.

Greenlaw was declared out for the rest of the game.

#49ers LB Dre Greenlaw (Achilles) is now officially out for the game.

— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) February 12, 2024

Greenlaw Carted Off in Passenger Seat

Even more noticeable was where Greenlaw sat on the cart.

He ended up leaving not in the back of the medical vehicle but ended up riding shotgun with his leg injury.

He can’t sit in the back? pic.twitter.com/9jpz0rdoF1

— Big Cat (@BarstoolBigCat) February 12, 2024

One would think that with an injury like an Achilles ailment, medical officials would try to make the player as comfortable as possible before they leave. It wasn’t the case here.

MORE: San Francisco 49ers Depth Chart

Regardless, Greenlaw was replaced by Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles for the rest of the first half. Greenlaw became the most significant injury of the game.

As the 2023 NFL season comes to a close, the 2024 NFL Draft is on the horizon. Pro Football Network has you covered with everything from team draft needs to the Top 100 prospects available. Plus, fire up PFN’s Mock Draft Simulator to put yourself in the general manager’s seat and make all the calls!

Listen to the PFN Fantasy Podcast

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NFL World Reacts to Epic Super Bowl Intro From CBS

Published

2 months ago

February 12, 2024

darragh

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Super Bowl 58 is here and it’s going to be exciting. The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are facing off in the final game of 2023.

CBS is broadcasting the game and the opening was nothing short of amazing. How is the NFL world reacting to the electric Super Bowl-opening video?

Epic CBS Super Bowl Intro Garners Reaction From NFL World

The video, which spanned four minutes and 19 seconds, featured players from both teams talking about the big game and what it means to them. It also featured their families talking about their journeys to this point.

“Amazing intro! Reminds me of my dad! Bravo on the intro!,” one NFL fan said on X (formerly known as Twitter)

And now, the end is near.

And so, the @49ers and @Chiefs face that final curtain. pic.twitter.com/YgIEGOAMb1

— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) February 11, 2024

Additionally, Frank Sinatra’s “My Way” played in the background, giving it a near-movie feel. “This was incredible.,” another person said on X. “And so, the @49ers and @Chiefs face that final curtain,” CBS Sports said.

The 49ers finished the regular season as the top seed in the NFC with a 12-5 record. After their first-round bye, they defeated both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to earn their trip to Las Vegas for the Super Bowl. Both of their victories came in comeback fashion, including an NFC Championship-record 17-point comeback.

The Chiefs, on the other hand, had a more uphill battle. Entering the playoffs as the AFC’s third seed, they finished the regular season with an 11-6 record. In the playoffs, they defeated the Miami Dolphins, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens to punch their ticket.

Super Bowl 58 is a re-match of Super Bowl 54 when the Chiefs defeated the 49ers 31-24. The win was the first in Patrick Mahomes career, as he also won Super Bowl MVP. Four years later, the Chiefs have made three more and won another. For the 49ers, this is their first trip back to the big game since.

The game kicked off at 6:30 p.m. ET with the 49ers receiving the opening kick. In addition to being broadcast on CBS, the game is also being streamed on Paramount+.