Will Sean Payton return to the NFL for the 2023 campaign? No one knows for sure, but there have been suggestions Payton could stick with FOX for another year before pursuing the league’s vacant head coaching jobs next season. Now that the Carolina Panthers have hired Frank Reich, Payton is down to four options if he wants to coach this year.

Let’s run through the most significant reasons why Payton could hold off until 2024 before returning to the NFL sidelines.

Sean Payton May Not Coach in the NFL Next Season

It’s been fascinating to watch Payton’s potential return to the NFL, especially because his work as a FOX analyst has essentially required him to discuss his situation on the air. We’ve never been granted such access to a coaching candidate’s thought process before, and Payton has been quite candid with his thoughts on the vacancies around the league.

Payton has interviewed with the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Arizona Cardinals, and Panthers, leaving the Indianapolis Colts as the only team without a head coach that failed to meet with Payton. While it appeared to be a near certainty that Payton would accept a job this offseason, recent reports have indicated his return is a coin-flip decision.

Why wouldn’t Payton come back to the NFL in 2023? We’ll start with the most obvious answer before examining a few other reasons that might make sense.

The Available Head Coaching Jobs Aren’t That Appealing

Throughout this process, Payton has been forthcoming about what he’s looking for in his next team. The answer shouldn’t surprise anyone: talent at quarterback, and stability in the front office and ownership group.

None of the franchises still searching for a coach can boast both qualities. Even the Panthers’ job, which I ranked as the No. 1 vacancy earlier this month, didn’t offer an answer under center. Carolina had the best roster of the clubs in need of a head coach, and while they could land a rookie QB in the upcoming draft, there’s no guarantee they’ll be able to grab a signal-caller with the ninth overall pick.

The Texans’ head coaching position came in at No. 2 in our rankings, but this isn’t a slam-dunk role either. Houston can offer draft capital — including the second overall selection — and a few intriguing roster pieces, but their ownership and front office are erratic. They’ve run through two head coaches in the past two seasons, which could make Payton wary of attaching himself to such a disjointed franchise.

Payton was thought to be the leading candidate for the Broncos, but San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans has recently emerged as the frontrunner. Payton’s second interview with Denver is now on hold, and some reports have suggested the former New Orleans Saints head coach fears a potential power struggle with Broncos ownership (which Payton has denied).

MORE: 2023 NFL Head Coach, General Manager, and Coordinator Interview Tracker

Although Payton is willing to work with Russell Wilson, being contractually tied to a declining 34-year-old QB can’t be all that alluring.

The Cardinals have a quarterback capable of near-elite play in Kyler Murray, but he’s likely to miss the beginning of next season after tearing his ACL in December. The rest of Arizona’s roster needs a total reset.

While the Cardinals’ decision to hire former Titans executive Monti Ossenfort is a positive sign, owner Michael Bidwill and Co. still run this organization like a family business. Payton could get to Arizona and find a franchise unwilling to change its stripes.

Finally, the Colts never even requested an interview with Payton. That’s probably for the best, as I can’t imagine Payton would be willing to sign up with Indianapolis.

Owner Jim Irsay’s behavior over the past year has bordered on erratic, and his decision to hire Jeff Saturday as the Colts’ interim head coach calls into question how serious this team is about winning.

Better Jobs Might Come Open in 2024

Payton can afford to be patient as he chooses his next job. As a future Hall of Famer, he’s earned the right to be selective. Payton’s already earned plenty of money in his career, and he’s only 59 years old, so the clock isn’t exactly ticking on a potential return to the NFL.

If Payton isn’t enthusiastic about any of the positions available this offseason, there’s no reason why he can’t wait until 2024 to come back. While we don’t know which teams will have head coaching vacancies next year, we can make an educated guess — and some of the clubs could be far more attractive than this year’s crop.

The Dallas Cowboys will always be at the center of the Payton conservation. Even back-to-back 12-win seasons haven’t been enough to stave off speculation that Jerry Jones could fire Mike McCarthy and install Payton — who is good friends with Jones and served as the Cowboys’ quarterbacks coach from 2003-05 — as Dallas’ head coach.

The Cowboys plan to run it back in 2023, but Jones is 81 years old. Dallas hasn’t advanced out of the Divisional Round in nearly 30 years. At some point, possibly as soon as next year, the Cowboys could make a head coaching change, and Payton would immediately become their top candidate.

Payton could also make sense for both Los Angeles teams if either needs a new head coach in 2024. The Chargers’ Brandon Staley kept his job this offseason despite allowing the Jacksonville Jaguars to complete the third-largest comeback in NFL playoff history in the Wild Card round, but he might not be so lucky next year.

Parting ways with offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi might help LA’s offense get back on track. If not, Payton would surely relish the opportunity to work with Justin Herbert.

Meanwhile, the Rams won’t fire Sean McVay, but he’s openly flirted with retirement in each of the past two offseasons. He’ll be back for at least one more year, but it wouldn’t shock anyone if McVay decides to take a break after 2023.

Given their aged roster and lack of future draft capital, the Rams offer a less appealing situation than the Chargers, but the prospect of a Los Angeles-based job could entice Payton.

Teams May Not Want To Sacrifice Draft Picks for Payton

Payton isn’t your standard head coaching candidate. Technically, he’s still under contract with the Saints through the 2024 campaign. Thus, New Orleans expects trade compensation from whichever team ultimately hires its former head coach.

The package the Saints are seeking in exchange for Payton remains to be determined. Payton himself has suggested that New Orleans wants a mid-to-late first-round pick. Other reports have indicated it will take a first-round selection “and more.” Jeff Duncan of the Times-Picayune recently reported Saints general manager Mickey Loomis might be looking for two first-rounders.

MORE: Latest Denver Broncos News and Rumors on Their Head Coach Search

Head coaching trades have typically worked out for the acquiring team, but it’s still difficult to ask any club to give up draft capital for a coach. These jobs are only open because the situations aren’t ideal.

The Broncos, Cardinals, Texans, and Panthers all need to add significant talent to their rosters. Sacrificing the chance to land a first-round prospect — and sign him to a below-market rookie contract — might be too great an opportunity to give away.

Payton’s Salary Requirements Could Give Teams Pause

Although NFL head coach salaries aren’t readily available, Bill Belichick is believed to command the highest pay in the league at roughly $20 million annually. Five other coaches — Pete Carroll, McVay, Mike Tomlin, Andy Reid, and John Harbaugh — are thought to have eclipsed $12 million per year.

Per Duncan, Payton is aiming for a four-year contract that would pay him between $20 and $25 million annually. There is no cap on NFL coaching salaries, so paying up for an elite staff could be a way to exploit a hiring inefficiency.

Payton’s demands likely wouldn’t have presented a problem for the Panthers, as David Tepper is among the NFL’s richest owners. Ditto in Denver, where the Walton/Penner family is the wealthiest ownership group in the league.

But the Cardinals and Texans aren’t known as heavy spenders around the NFL. It would be highly out of character for either of those clubs to allot $20+ million for a head coach, even for someone with Payton’s track record. Add in the projected draft capital cost of trading for him, and the concept of Payton landing in Arizona or Houston begins to look less likely.