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Should You Start Kyren Williams vs. the Chiefs? Fantasy Outlook for Rams Running Back

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We have seen Kyren Williams’ fantasy football value take a huge jump in the past week or so. With the Los Angeles Rams‘ backfield a little less crowded after the release of Darrell Henderson, does Williams have a chance to return fantasy value for managers in Week 12 when they face the Kansas City Chiefs?

Kyren Williams Fantasy Outlook for Week 12

The Rams’ offensive share from last week is really intriguing. Williams led the RB position in terms of snaps (55%), with Cam Akers at 39% and Darrell Henderson at just 6%. However, it was Akers who led the team in touches with 14. Meanwhile, Williams had eight touches from nine opportunities.

When you break down how the snaps and opportunities split out, there is a clear breakdown to consider. Akers played on nearly 75% of the early down snaps, while Williams saw all but snap in either third-down or two-minute drill situations. The Rams did not have any goal-line opportunities in this game, but it was interesting to see them split touches between Akers and Williams in short-yardage situations.

MORE: Week 12 Fantasy RB Start/Sit Recommendations

Williams’ role appears to be as the receiving back, which has mixed value. In PPR formats, that offers a potentially nice floor, but it does mean his ceiling is somewhat limited. There is some potential, with the pair splitting short-yardage work, that Williams will be involved around the goal line, but we will need to see how it plays out. It could also be extremely inconsistent.

We also have little frame of reference for what the Rams’ offense will look like this week, with Bryce Perkins expected to start. Perkins has been with the Rams since 2020 but had not taken an NFL snap until Week 10 of this season. We should expect the Rams to lean on the run game early this week, but against the Chiefs, they could quickly find themselves chasing.

The Chiefs have very much been an average matchup for opposing RBs this year. They have allowed an average of 19.91 fantasy points to the position, which is 0.04 below the league average through 11 weeks.

In the last three weeks, they have allowed two fantasy performances of more than 20 fantasy points. Those 20-point performances have sandwiched a 9.6-point performance. The performances in Weeks 9 and 11 came when the starting RB against them was Derrick Henry and Austin Ekeler, with Travis Etienne the starting back in Week 10.

Should you Start Kyren Williams in Week 12?

The Rams backfield is a tough one to judge, even if the departure of Henderson has somewhat cleared things up. Heading into this game, the evidence we have is that Akers will be the early-down back, and Williams will be the receiving back. Normally, that would put the higher ceiling with Akers, but in this matchup, it could be different.

The expectation is that the Rams will struggle in this game. The Chiefs are more than two touchdown favorites on many sportsbooks as of Thursday morning. Therefore, the Rams could find themselves chasing this game for the majority of the second half. In the first half alone, the Chiefs are favored by around 10 points.

That could mean we see a lot of Williams on the field in the second half. If that is the case, his ceiling is intriguing just because the Rams could rack up a lot of “garbage time” production. Additionally, with Tyler Higbee struggling with a knee injury, the Rams face being without their top-two pass catchers this season. That could push more targets into Williams as the check-down option.

It is hard to know exactly what Williams’ workload will look like. For that reason, he is more of a 14- or 16-team league consideration than in 12-team formats. Additionally, in PPR formats, he carries a greater relative value than in non-PPR.

In Tommy Garrett’s half-PPR RB fantasy rankings, he has Williams as the RB48, so he is just outside of 14-team Flex consideration. I am a touch more bullish on Williams and would look to play him in 14-team leagues, especially half or full-PPR formats.

The other place that Williams carries extremely intriguing value is as a late-round selection in Underdog Fantasy Best Ball contests. Williams’ value is low enough to a point where he won’t require significant investment, but the potential for him to see 15-plus touches and even find the end zone is enticing in that format.



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‘My Health Is Way More Important’

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If practicing for the first time since Nov. 8 wasn’t enough of a positive sign that Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins will play Monday night at Jacksonville, his willingness to do a media session for the first time since injuring his hamstring hammered home the point.

Higgins said he feels as though he’s 100 percent healthy despite the team bringing him along slowly and limiting his participation, and he’s looking forward to being back in action against the Jaguars.

Will Tee Higgins Play Monday at Jacksonville?

“That’s the plan for sure,” Higgins said.

Higgins has missed the last three games, all losses, due to the hamstring injury, and he also missed the Week 5 win at Arizona due to a fractured rib.

“Obviously, it’s frustrating with the injuries and stuff, but any time I can be out with the guys and help the team get a ‘W,’ that’s all I ask for,” Higgins said.

Asked about some of the outside criticism that he wasn’t playing due to the lack of getting a contract extension for the start of the season and his pending foray into free agency for the first time, Higgins said he was unaware of it but isn’t surprised by it.

“I haven’t heard that, haven’t seen it,” he said. “I’m pretty sure people have been talking like that, but it’s cool. My health is way more important than the other people who have their opinion on me.”

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart

“But I’m here, and my only thing is I always want to help this team,” he continued. “I’m glad I’m here, and I’m glad I’m healthy.”

Bengals quarterback Jake Browning is glad Higgins is back as well.

“Tee’s one of the top receivers in the NFL,” he said. “I don’t think I can really put into words how important he is to this offense. I think we’ve got a really good receiver room, and I don’t want to take away from (it). I think Andrei (Iosivas) has continued to play really well. Trenton Irwin has proven he can do it. But there’s just something that Tee brings to the table being as big, as fast, and having the experience he does, where it’s always nice to have him and Ja’Marr (Chase) on the outside.”

Higgins’ hamstring injury occurred while running a go route in practice the Wednesday before the Houston game. When it first happened, he didn’t think it was going to cost him any games.

“It was a deep ball, and I over-strided,” Higgins said. “Things like that happen. I thought it was just gonna be a little strain or something like that. But I obviously went in and got the pictures, and it was a little worse than we thought.”

Even in the best-case scenario that Higgins plays in all six remaining games, he will still have missed nearly a quarter of it with four out of 17 games. But he said that doesn’t mean he can’t accomplish his goals.

“I’ve still got my goals written down, and I’ve still got goals to cross off for this season,” he said. “Some of them I might not be able to hit, but at the same time, I might. You never know. My goal is to go out and accomplish those goals no matter what.”

Asked if he could share a couple of those goals, Higgins declined.

But the key one for any receiver is a 1,000-yard season, yet the missed time and the slow start to the season may have that out of reach. Higgins has 27 catches for 328 yards. He would need to average 110.3 yards over the final six games to get there.

The most important part of the equation at this point is that Higgins plans to return to action.

And whatever personal goals he has set to help him land a life-changing contract in the offseason are currently behind his main goal of helping the Bengals snap their three-game losing streak and keep hope alive for a playoff berth.

“Obviously, we definitely want to win, definitely need to win,” he said. “I feel like this could definitely get us back on track to where we want to go. We know we’ve still got the guys in this locker room to go out and win games. All it takes is for us to put together the pieces of the puzzle and complement each other and just play ball.”

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more! 

Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast

Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Bengals Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Bengals Podcast on our NFL YouTube channel.





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Should You Start Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, or Romeo Doubs in Fantasy Football in Week 13?

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We’re diving into the outlooks for Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs in fantasy football for Week 13. Who is the better Green Bay Packers wide receiver to start this week?

Should You Start Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Jayden Reed, or Romeo Doubs This Week?

The Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer says Reed is the player to start. His projected 8.7 points include 3.9 receptions, 53.9 yards, and 0.2 TDs. That doesn’t seem like a big stat line, but it outperforms the PFN Consensus Projection for Watson (8.2 points), Doubs (7.8 points), and Wicks (4.8 points).

However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Watson outperforming all of Reed, Doubs, and Wicks. Watson balled out on Thanksgiving and has a unique skill set. The matchup is tough all around for them. Watson’s size and elite speed, along with being the alpha, make him the top choice for me.

Fantasy Outlook for Watson This Week

This season has been a disappointment for Watson and his managers, but Thanksgiving offered a glimmer of hope. Watson finished with his highest point total of the season, with 17.9 half-PPR points. That was good enough to make him the WR10 on the week. Most of that damage was done in the first half, too.

MORE: Fantasy News Tracker

All year, Watson has been good by most metrics; he and Jordan Love just seemed to miss on his deep routes. All three primary receivers (Watson, Doubs, Reed) are targeted at similar rates, even with regard to first reads. The biggest difference? Watson’s average depth of target (aDOT) is 5-6 yards deeper than his teammates.

This means that Watson is the best bet for more yardage over any of his teammates. The Chiefs CBs are a tough matchup, though. Reed is the other top option and gets Trent McDuffie, the Chiefs top cover CB, in the slot. Watson and Doubs see L’Jarius Sneed or Jaylen Watson. Watson is the easiest one to pass against.

Fantasy Outlook for Wicks This Week

Wicks is the Packers’ fourth receiver on the depth chart. He had been trending up, but after missing last week with the concussion, and with Watson blowing up, Wicks is just a possible stash.

Wicks has been an efficient WR when seeing opportunities this season. Just don’t expect him to see a ton of them. When Watson has been healthy, Wicks has not played more than 44% of snaps in any game. He’s seen at least four targets in each of his last four games played, but that’s a tough bet to gamble on.

Fantasy Outlook for Reed This Week

Reed has been probably the Packers’ best, most consistent fantasy WR this season. Reed has been a top-36 fantasy WR in seven of his 11 games. While all of that is true, and he’s the safest bet most weeks, this isn’t most weeks.

MORE: Kyle Soppe’s Week 13 Fantasy Football Cheat Sheet

It’s hard to throw on the Chiefs in the slot. McDuffie is the primary slot CB for the Chiefs, and he’s been elite this season. On the year, McDuffie has allowed just a single TD when in coverage. Teams look to avoid him most weeks — he’s seen four or fewer targets against in six of his 11 games on the year.

Reed has recently been involved in running the ball as well as receiving it. This likely keeps him viable for fantasy in Week 13, but his ceiling is still limited. He would be my favorite non-Watson option, but he, like all the Packers WRs, is risky this week.

Fantasy Outlook for Doubs This Week

Doubs has been a touchdown-dependent player for fantasy. Since Watson came back from injury, any of his relevant weeks came when he’s found the end zone. All of his top-15 finishes came without Watson playing, and he’s recorded a top-40 finish just four times with Watson in the seven games they’ve played together.

Doubs also hasn’t drawn targets with Watson and Reed there. Since Week 5, he’s seen over six targets just once. In that same span, he’s had more than four catches just once as well. He’s the third-best option of the four but will only be worthwhile to roster if he can find the end zone, and that’s just not a smart bet to make.

Looking to make a trade in your fantasy league? Having trouble deciding who to start and who to sit? Setting DFS lineups? Check out PFN’s Free Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer, Start/Sit Optimizer, and DFS Lineup Optimizer to help you make the right decision!

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What Are the Chances of Getting a Top-5 Pick?

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On Wednesday, we explored possible postseason paths for the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 5-6 and sit one game out of the seventh and final AFC playoff spot.

Those playoff scenarios mostly involved winning out to go 11-6, although no 10-7 team has ever failed to make the playoffs since the NFL went to the 17-game schedule in 2021.

But what if things go completely the other way? What if the Bengals fail to win another game with Joe Burrow out for the year with a wrist injury and a defense that ranks among the league’s worst in many metrics and main statistics?

How high of a draft pick could the Bengals reasonably expect to get if they finish 5-12?

What Are the Chances the Bengals Get a Top-5 Pick?

It’s a weird dynamic for fans of the Bengals, many of whom probably can’t bring themselves to openly root against the team during the three hours they are playing. But for the other 165 hours in a week, they find themselves hoping for the highest draft pick possible to help bolster a roster that might be just a little too Burrow-reliant.

And Burrow is the key piece here. There’s a belief that the Bengals can be right back in the playoffs and Super Bowl conversation next year simply by inserting the variable of a healthy Burrow.

It’s not as though the team will be facing a two-to-three-year rebuild if it craters to 5-12. However, ending the season on a nine-game losing streak certainly could cloud the culture Zac Taylor has built and cause some doubt to creep into the locker room.

But those are hypothetical intangibles, and we’re here to talk about math.

Using the PFN’s NFL Playoff Predictor, I marked the Bengals for losses in each remaining game and then hit the simulate button to run results for the other 86 games remaining on the NFL schedule.

After running dozens of simulations where the Bengals lose out, their average draft spot was 5.8. The highest they picked was fourth, and the lowest was eighth. However, those numbers come with a caveat.

 

In every single simulation, the Bengals finished tied with at least one other team at 5-12.

The tiebreaker for the NFL Draft is strength of schedule (the combined winning percentage of all of your opponents). Among tied teams, the one with the lowest strength of schedule number picks first.

Based on 2022 results, the Bengals came into the season with one of the hardest schedules in the league, and just as that has helped lead to the 5-6 start, it could bite them again come draft time because their current strength of schedule number is .552.

MORE: Cincinnati Bengals Depth Chart

Only three teams have a tougher strength of schedule, and the Steelers (.561), Browns (.556), and Chiefs (.556) are not going to be involved in a tiebreaker procedure for a top-10 pick in the draft.

The teams most often showing up in the bottom six during the simulations have lower strength of schedules and, therefore, would beat the Bengals in any tiebreaker.

They include:

  • Patriots (.544)
  • Panthers (.537)
  • Cardinals (.533)
  • Bears (.456)
  • Giants (.474)
  • Commanders (.489)

Some people might look at those numbers and think that with six games and 35 percent of the schedule remaining, a lot can change.

But the key to remember is that with the way the NFL schedule is structured — with each team in a division having only three unique games out of 17 — almost every time a Cincinnati opponent loses, the Bengals’ strength of schedule is theoretically lowered. However, that loss is most likely coming against another team the Bengals have played, thereby raising that team’s strength of schedule and creating a wash.

The Bengals are 7.5-point underdogs at Jacksonville on Monday. Early projections for Week 14 have the Colts favored by 2 at Paycor Stadium.

The Bengals might be a slight favorite against the Vikings in Week 15, but they’ll be underdogs at the Steelers in Week 16, at the Chiefs in Week 17, and possibly at home against the Browns in Week 18.

Teams with a shot of finishing with five wins or less, their current record, and remaining schedule:

  • Panthers (1-10): at Buccaneers (4-7), at Saints (5-6), Falcons (5-6), Packers (5-6), at Jaguars, Buccaneers (4-7)
  • Cardinals (2-10): at Steelers (7-4), Bye, 49ers (8-3), at Bears (4-8), at Eagles (10-1), Seahawks (6-5)
  • Patriots (2-9): Chargers (4-7), at Steelers (7-4), Chiefs (8-3), at Broncos (6-5), at Bills (6-6), Jets (4-7)
  • Buccaneers (4-7): Panthers (1-10), at Falcons (5-6), at Packers (5-6), Jaguars (8-3), Saints (5-6), at Panthers (1-10)
  • Titans (4-7): Colts (6-5), at Dolphins (8-3), Texans (6-5), Seahawks (6-5), at Texans (6-5), Jaguars (8-3)
  • Jets (4-7): Falcons (5-6), Texans (6-5), at Dolphins (8-3), Commanders (4-8), at Browns (7-4), at Patriots (2-9)
  • Chargers (4-7): at Patriots (2-9), Broncos (6-5), at Raiders (5-7), Bills (6-6), at Broncos (6-5), Chiefs (8-3)
  • Bears (4-8): Bye, Lions (8-3), at Browns (7-4), Cardinals (2-10), Falcons (5-6), at Packers (5-6),
  • Commanders (4-8): Dolphins (8-3), Bye, at Rams (5-6), at Jets (4-7), 49ers (8-3), Cowboys (8-3)
  • Giants (4-8): Bye, Packers (5-6), at Saints (5-6), at Eagles (10-1), Rams (5-6), Eagles (10-1)

While Bengals fans might struggle to cheer against the team, they certainly can have guilt-free rooting interests in the other games across the league. Here is a look at Week 13 games involved in the derby for a top-five pick and which team Bengals fans should be pulling for to increase their odds of a better draft pick should the Cincinnati season completely implode.

  • Chargers at Patriots: Patriots
  • Cardinals at Steelers: Cardinals
  • Falcons at Jets: Jets
  • Dolphins at Commanders: Commanders
  • Colts at Titans: Titans
  • Panthers at Buccaneers: Buccaneers

Want to predict the rest of the 2023 season with our FREE NFL Playoff Predictor? Looking for the most up-to-date NFL standings? What about a breakdown of team depth charts or the NFL schedule? Pro Football Network has you covered with that and more! 

Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast

Listen to the PFN Bengals Podcast! Click the embedded player below to listen, or you can find the PFN Bengals Podcast on iTunes, Spotify, and all major podcast platforms.  Be sure to subscribe and leave us a five-star review! Rather watch instead? Check out the PFN Bengals Podcast on our NFL YouTube channel.





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